Elections At a Glance

HOUSE: 64 Open House seats

Republicans hold a narrow majority, but the battlefield is tilting toward Democrats. Redistricting battles are re-emerging as a late-cycle variable, with Louisiana preparing to redraw its map mid-cycle following the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act (VRA) ruling, and Florida advancing an aggressive GOP proposal to offset Democratic gains in Virginia.

At the same time, retirements and resignations are expanding the map, while special election results point to a weaker GOP environment.

Upcoming primaries in Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, and Georgia will test party unity and candidate strength, as fundraising gaps and new entrants reshape the battlefield.

SENATE: 11 Open Senate seats

Recent rating shifts in Democrats’ favor in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nebraska are expanding the Senate map beyond traditional battlegrounds, even as the map still favors Republicans.

In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills’ exit reshapes a pickup opportunity, leaving Democrats without their strongest recruit and elevating uncertainty around nominee quality as Graham Platner emerges. Even in traditionally red states like Kansas, new entrants are testing the map’s edges, though the GOP remains favored in most scenarios.

Outside GOP groups are already investing in Ohio and Alaska, while May and June primaries in Georgia, Iowa, Alabama, Louisiana, and Kentucky will define party unity and general election matchups.

GOVERNORS: 15 Open Governor seats

Major candidate developments in California, including Swalwell’s exit and President Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton, have reshaped the field, raising new questions about consolidation in the top-two primary.

At the same time, gubernatorial and state legislative races are taking on added importance as redistricting battles escalate nationwide. With states beginning to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling, control of state governments will shape how aggressively maps are redrawn ahead of 2028.

Races in Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia reflect this broader shift, where candidate strength and statewide control are increasingly tied to future political maps—not just immediate outcomes.

SCOTUS Reshapes Maps

What Changed

A higher standard is now required to prove a district map violates the Voting Rights Act. Courts can now accept partisan justifications for maps, even when they produce clear racial effects, unless intentional racial discrimination is shown.

What’s at Stake

Black representation in the South faces risk. Courts may allow partisan redraws even when racial impact is clear. Democrats in blue states are considering redrawing maps to eliminate all Republican representation.

Impact Timeline

2026: Active and accelerating - States are moving quickly to redraw maps mid-cycle. Louisiana delayed House primaries, while Alabama and Tennessee are preparing special sessions. Multiple Southern seats could shift if courts allow changes to proceed.

2028: Nationalizes - Early Southern redraws set the stage for a wider remapping cycle, with both parties preparing aggressive counter-moves. Blue states are signaling responses, turning redistricting into a nationwide battleground.

The ruling shifts power to partisan mapmaking—triggering immediate state-level action, but most meaningful changes are still ahead.

House

A small GOP majority meets a rapidly widening battlefield, where vacancies, redistricting, and candidate quality may matter more than baseline partisanship.

April Special Elections Recap

Special elections continue to show Democrats overperforming—with caveats.

GA-14 (GOP Open, April 7) - Republican Clay Fuller held the seat vacated by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, but underperformed baseline margins in a safe GOP district, setting up a November rematch in a still GOP-leaning seat.

NJ-11 (Dem Open, April 16) - Democrat Analilia Mejia won former Rep. Mikie Sherrill's open seat decisively with strong turnout and early vote advantage driving the margin—pockets of resistance did emerge in key suburban communities, though.

GOP margins erode, signaling a favorable Democratic environment without a guaranteed wave.

Map Contention Continues

Mid-decade redistricting fights intensify in Virginia and Florida—with limited net impact.

Virginia Map Tilts Left

What Changed on April 21
Voters approved a redistricting amendment, and a new congressional map now sits before the Virginia Supreme Court. The lines push the state sharply left, with Democrats favored in roughly 10 of 11 seats.

What It Means
Up to four Republican-held seats move into play, improving the Democratic path to House gains. Filing deadlines slip to late May and primaries delay, extending uncertainty as candidates reassess.

Democrats could control ~90% of seats in a state where Trump won 46% of the vote.

Florida Map Offsets Democratic Gains in Virginia

DeSantis redraw targets up to four Democratic seats
Top-down plan dismantles Democratic districts in Orlando, Tampa Bay, and South Florida. The proposal aims to shift the delegation from 20R–8D to as much as 24R–4D, a maximal play to blunt Democratic gains elsewhere.

Leaders approved the map after Virginia’s vote and pushed filing deadlines to June, compressing the legal window and forcing quick action. The redraw moves multiple Democratic seats sharply right but leaves several Republican districts exposed. Potential gains expand, but pickups remain uncertain in a volatile cycle, underscored by Rep. Daniel Webster’s retirement after opposing the map.

Republicans could control ~86% of seats in a state where Harris won 43% of the vote.

Midwest Primaries

Ohio

Redistricting favors Republicans, but candidate quality may limit GOP gains.

GOP pickups are not guaranteed despite favorable maps​.

Indiana

Intraparty tensions are driving widespread primary challenges.

Intraparty battles, not general elections, will decide outcomes.

Sun Belt Primaries

Georgia

Crowded primaries split money, attention, and votes, leaving no clear leader and fluid outcomes.

Fragmentation rules across districts.

Texas

Runoffs, resignations, and crowded fields scramble the map, making candidate strength, not fundamentals, the deciding factor in November.

Redistricting clashes and late shifts make runoffs unpredictable.

Moving to the Left

These seats are breaking toward Democrats, putting the majority within reach.

Democratic Rep. Don Davis is the most vulnerable House Democrat in the country running in a Trump +12 district. Davis holds a significant fundraising lead, bringing in more than $1 million in the first quarter and $3.3 million so far this cycle. He currently has $2.9 million cash on hand​.

Coming off a difficult primary, GOP opponent Laurie Buckhout raised more than $600,000 in the first quarter and enters the second quarter with $1.5 million in cash on hand.

GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan is defending one of the most competitive seats for Republicans. The contest could become the most expensive House race in 2026: Bresnahan raised over $1.2 million in Q1, but Democratic challenger Paige Cognetti topped him with $1.46 million. This R+4 seat could decide control of the House.

Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is fighting to hold one of the five seats targeted in redistricting. Texas’ 34th District now ranks among the most competitive House races this fall, as the Rio Grande Valley continues its shift to the right.

Democrats view this as a top pickup opportunity, but a crowded and increasingly negative primary is complicating the path. State Sen. John Cavanaugh, a well-known, establishment-backed candidate, faces multiple rivals in a fragmented field.

GOP-aligned groups have also engaged in the primary, running ads that elevate Cavanaugh, signaling he may be seen as a more favorable general election opponent. With no clear consensus on the strongest nominee, Democrats risk weakening their position in a seat where candidate quality will likely decide November.

Kentucky Spotlight

Trump vs. Massie

Libertarian firebrand and incumbent Rep. Massie broke with Trump, opposing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) and pushing for transparency on Epstein-related files. Trump responded by calling for his ouster and backing a challenger, with allies prepared to spend.

Massie crushed a 2024 primary opponent with about 75% of the vote. Massie's coalition is built on small-dollar donors and a fiercely independent brand.
His 2026 opponent Ed Gallrein has Trump’s endorsement and outside money. Outside groups have already spent over $15.5M, roughly $9.4 million backing Gallrein/against Massie vs. $6.2M backing Massie.

What This Race Decides

A Massie win exposes limits to Trump’s grip on the party. A loss reinforces it. The result signals who controls safe Republican seats.

Senate

Republicans hold a structural edge, but shifting ratings in NC, GA, OH, and NE put more seats in play for Democrats than expected.

Waiting on Trump in Texas

The Matchup

Republicans: John Cornyn, 4-term incumbent; Ken Paxton, State AG, impeached in 2023 vs. Democrat: James Talarico, State Legislator

Cornyn holds the institutional edge with tenure and establishment backing after advancing to the runoff.

Paxton runs as the Trump-aligned challenger in the runoff, but lacks the formal endorsement that could consolidate support.

Talarico cleared the Democratic field and waits for the GOP runoff winner. In a deep-red state, his path remains narrow.

How We Got Here

A Trump endorsement would reshape the race overnight. Its absence keeps both lanes intact and the outcome unsettled.

A divided GOP keeps the race unsettled, and early polling shows it could already be competitive in November.

Georgia Preview

The Matchup

Democrat Incumbent: Jon Ossoff, Senator vs. Republicans: Mike Collins, Congressman, Polling 1st; Buddy Carter, Congressman; Derek Dooley, Former Tennessee football coach

Ossoff is running for a second term after a narrow 2021 victory in a state Trump carried in 2024.

Republicans view Georgia as one of their best pickup opportunities, but Trump has yet to endorse a candidate.

The Fragmented Field Stays Open

GOP insiders hoped Governor Brian Kemp would enter the race. He passed and endorsed Dooley instead. Trump has yet to endorse, leaving the primary without a clear frontrunner. Mike Collins leads in early public polling, but a divided primary field risks producing a weakened nominee heading into a difficult general election.

A Trump endorsement would reshape the field overnight. Without it, the race remains unsettled — and whichever Republican emerges may face Ossoff without the unified party support needed to flip the seat.

With no candidate expected to eclipse 50% of the primary vote, the field is likely headed to a June runoff, extending GOP infighting and delaying consolidation.

GOP division is giving Ossoff an early advantage in a race that should be competitive.

Is Ohio Back in Play?

The Matchup

Democrat: Sherrod Brown, Former Senator vs. Republicans: Jon Husted, Senator; Former Lieutenant Governor

Ohio spent years drifting right, with Republicans dominating statewide races and shrinking the battleground. A state Trump won three times now sits as a toss up.
Brown’s return forces the issue, with Republicans responding with $79 million in defensive spending to protect Husted. Early polling shows a narrow race, with neither side in control.

Brown’s economic populism and brand with working-class voters give him crossover appeal in a red-leaning state. The GOP also faces potential headwinds from a competitive gubernatorial race and down-ballot dynamics.

By The Numbers

Early polling shows neither candidate pulling ahead.

Republicans are flooding the race with cash to hold onto Ohio.

Emerging Races to Watch

Maine

Susan Collins (R) vs. Graham Platner (D)
Sen. Collins has outrun the GOP brand for years, but pressure is building in a blue state.

Gov. Janet Mills’ late exit reshaped the race, but presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner enters with unresolved controversies that create early headwinds in spite of grassroots support.

The race is expected to be close regardless, with Collins’ crossover strength tested in a polarized environment.

New Hampshire

Open Seat (D) vs. TBD (R)
Rep. Pappas enters as the Democratic favorite, but Republicans see an opening.
Former Sen. John E. Sununu leads the GOP field, which also includes former MA Sen. Scott Brown. Party leaders argue that Sununu, the brother of the popular former governor, keeps the race competitive.

Recent polling shows a statistical tie, but in a favorable Democratic environment, Republicans still face an uphill path to an upset.

Iowa

Open Seat (R) vs. TBD (D)
Sen. Ernst’s exit creates an opening, but the primary will decide if Democrats compete.

Wahls vs. Turek is an electability test:

• State Rep. Turek (establishment) has crossover appeal and a track record of winning in red areas

• State Sen. Wahls (progressive) leads in early polling but risks being defined as too liberal

Republicans signal they prefer Wahls, underscoring the stakes of the primary outcome.

Nebraska

Pete Ricketts (R) vs. TBD (D) vs. Dan Osborn (I)
GOP Sen. Ricketts faces a first full-term test but enters far stronger than Sen. Fischer did in 2024.

Osborn, a blue-collar independent who nearly upset Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, returns with cross-party appeal that keeps the race on the edge of competitiveness, but his support may be capped without a broader shift in the environment.

These races hinge less on the map and more on whether parties nominate candidates who can actually win.

Southern Inflighting

Alabama

Barry Moore vs. Steve Marshall vs. Jared Hudson
Sen. Tuberville’s run for governor creates an open-seat Republican primary and a rare scramble for succession. Rep. Moore holds Trump’s endorsement and a clear lead, consolidating early support, while state AG Marshall and businessman Hudson remain in the race without closing the gap or redefining the contest.

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy vs. Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming
Incumbent Sen. Cassidy faces a volatile three-way primary with Trump-backed Rep. Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming.

A June runoff looks likely, with no candidate near 50% and a real risk Cassidy could be shut out. His 2021 impeachment vote to convict Trump remains a core liability, while his vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. limits crossover support.
Letlow's low name recognition and inability to pull away from Cassidy in public polling have opened a path for Fleming, as Trump’s endorsement has yet to consolidate the field.

Kentucky

Andy Barr vs. Daniel Cameron
An open-seat race to replace Sen. McConnell has quickly consolidated after Trump endorsed Rep. Andy Barr and pushed outsider Nate Morris out of the race, with Morris exiting to join the administration and backing Barr.

Barr now enters as the clear Trump-backed frontrunner, combining financial strength with MAGA alignment. Former state AG Daniel Cameron remains a contender but must navigate ties to McConnell while arguing Barr represents the establishment lane.

These three Republican primaries are turning into intraparty fights shaped by Trump, runoffs, and competing factions.

Governors

State power takes center stage as redistricting battles escalate nationwide. Governors and state legislatures are emerging as key players as states respond to the Supreme Court’s VRA ruling.

Governors’ races will determine who draws the next congressional maps.

Capitol Hill to State Capitals

Record number of lawmakers are leaving Washington for statewide runs.

Georgia Spotlight

Democratic Primary

Democrats have an opportunity to flip the Governor's seat this cycle but face primary challenges of their own. No candidate locks down the field.

Bottoms leads early, yet Thurmond, Esteves, and Duncan remain within reach, which keeps a runoff in play. Recent results add fuel. Democrats won a 2025 statewide utility race by 25 points and flipped a 12-point State House seat.

A congressional special election in Georgia’s 14th district delivered a 25-point swing toward Democrats, the largest this cycle. Momentum shows up on paper. Structure still looks messy.

Republican Primary

On the Republican side, healthcare executive Rick Jackson, a self-funding entrant with $50+ million to deploy, blows open the field and turns a predictable primary into a volatile contest. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones no longer runs unopposed in spirit or in money.

The split sharpens along a familiar fault line: Jones anchors the Trump lane with the endorsement, while Carr and Raffensperger chase voters who care more about general election viability than loyalty tests.

That divide almost guarantees a runoff. Fragmentation leaves no clean path to a majority.

Nominee quality will decide 2026, but control of the governorship could shape Georgia’s maps in the next redistricting cycle.

Alabama Spotlight

Republican Primary

Sen. Tommy Tuberville holds the field with strong name ID, Trump alignment, and no serious primary threat. The bench stays thin, even as some intraparty frustration surfaces.

The risk does not come from a rival candidate—it comes from a Tuberville vulnerability. Residency questions hang over the race, and Democrats plan to press eligibility arguments under the state constitution's seven-year requirement. That line of attack does not flip the state, but it complicates what should be a clean runway.

Democratic Primary

Democrats bring a known quantity and a narrow path. Doug Jones remains the party’s strongest statewide candidate, with a past statewide win that proves viability under the right conditions.

The playbook is straightforward: prosecute the residency case, question Tuberville’s ties to the state, and frame the race around competence. The constraint is structural. Alabama has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998, and the partisan gap leaves little margin for error.

Iowa Spotlight

Real Opening for Democrats

State Auditor Rob Sand turns this into a real race. As Iowa’s only Democratic statewide elected official, he has built a durable brand, winning and being re-elected even as Democrats lost every other statewide office in tough cycles.

Sand holds a major cash advantage over likely GOP nominee Rep. Randy Feenstra, while Republicans remain stuck in a contested primary that delays consolidation.

Sand runs beyond the base, pairing crossover appeal with scale through 800+ town halls and a 99-county tour. His record fundraising, bipartisan support, and anti-corruption profile give him credibility in a red state.

Additionally, trade policy pressure and Gov. Reynolds’ sustained unpopularity create a rare opening in Iowa.

Rob Sand’s numbers add up

Best Democratic opportunity in decades, but Iowa still makes Democrats prove it.

California Spotlight

Recent Developments Reshape the Race

Swalwell’s exit scrambled the race and accelerated late movement. Xavier Becerra now gains traction across multiple polls as Democrats begin to coalesce around an experienced statewide candidate.

Donald Trump’s endorsement pushed Steve Hilton into early contention but failed to unify Republicans or reshape the field. The move may have reduced the risk of a Democratic lockout by sharpening partisan lines.

Republicans remain competitive at the top, but the likelihood of both advancing has declined as at least one Democrat now consistently polls within striking distance of the top two.

A large undecided bloc keeps the race fluid, with no candidate breaking out of the low-20s.

Election Dashboard

Elections At a Glance

HOUSE: 435 seats up for grabs

Republicans defend a razor-thin 217–214 majority (with one Independent and three vacancies) in a midterm environment that historically favors the president’s opposition party.

With 61 open seats, the highest level of retirements this century, and redistricting still unfolding, volatility remains high heading into November.

SENATE: 35 seats up for grabs

Democrats must net four seats to win control, which would require holding four competitive seats and flipping two toss-ups and two lean/likely GOP seats. March primaries in Texas and North Carolina set the stage for two of the cycle’s most consequential races.

Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in both states, an early signal both parties are watching, while new open seats and declining presidential approval could further reshape the map.

GOVERNORS: 36 seats up for grabs

Of the 36, there are 15 open seats created by term limits or retirements. While most contests lean toward the incumbent party, competitive races remain toss-ups with candidate quality and turnout decisive (i.e., AZ, GA, MI, NV, WI).

California’s crowded top-two primary has also created an unusually fragmented Democratic field and Ohio’s open-seat contest has unexpectedly tightened.

What’s Changing

Since February, early primaries and global dynamics are beginning to shift coalitions, races, and the broader political environment.

#1: Senate Battlegrounds

Texas and North Carolina are setting the stage for two of the most important Senate races of the cycle.

#2: Open Seat Surge

Congressional retirements have reached the highest level this century, with roughly 1 in 7 seats now open.

#3: New Money Influence

AI- and crypto-aligned super PACs are playing a growing role in shaping competitive primaries.

#4: Global Ripple Effects

The Iran conflict is beginning to impact Trump’s approval, energy prices, and congressional messaging.

Global Conflict Impact

The Iran conflict is introducing new political risk through energy prices, inflation, and presidential approval.

The Iran Conflict Begins to Reshape Domestic Political Dynamics

The U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran have produced mixed public reactions and early signs of political fallout at home.

While foreign policy rarely drives midterm outcomes directly, this conflict is already shaping the domestic environment—pushing up energy prices, reinforcing inflation concerns, and adding pressure to presidential approval.

If sustained, these effects could shift voter sentiment on the economy—the issue that typically decides elections.

Source: RCP and U.S. Energy Information Administration

House

With every seat on the ballot, a narrow margin puts House control in play.

Early Dynamics

The first primaries reinforced two early dynamics of the cycle:

• Republican primaries remain strongly influenced by President Trump’s endorsements.

• Democratic primaries increasingly reflect generational and ideological debates.

Texas Overview

Texas provided the clearest example when Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost his primary to state Rep. Steve Toth, a conservative challenger aligned with Trump-era populist messaging.

Several races remain unresolved and will extend into runoffs:

• TX-18 (D): Al Green vs. Christian Menefee

• TX-33 (D): Colin Allred vs. Julie Johnson

Majority Math Gets Tighter

Two recent developments could affect the House’s already narrow margin:

• TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales withdrew from his runoff after acknowledging a past relationship with a staff member and remains under a House Ethics investigation.

• Party Switch: Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA-03) announced plans
  to change his party affiliation from Republican to Independent but still caucus with Republicans.

Members who lose primaries but remain in office until January may also become less reliable participants in close votes, complicating leadership’s ability to manage a razor-thin majority.

Illinois Primary Recap

Big Spending, Mixed Results

lllinois’ open House races became a testing ground for AIPAC, crypto, and AI super PACs.

Illinois made it clear: money helps—but candidates still win on quality, message, and local credibility.

Indiana Spotlight

Indiana’s House races lack the volume of competitive primaries seen elsewhere, but a small number of districts could still shape the state’s role in the broader House battlefield.

• IN-01: Rep. Frank Mrvan faces a primary challenger and a potentially
  competitive general election in the state’s most competitive district.

• IN-07: Rep. André Carson faces a notable primary challenge, though the
  district remains safely Democratic.

Indiana is not a top-tier battleground, but a small number of races could still matter in a close House majority fight.

Competitive House Races

Redistricting and the Courts

The Map Is Moving—But Not Dramatically

Redistricting changes are likely to net out nationally, though individual states could still see localized shifts that matter at the margin. New maps have increased crossover districts, seats that voted for Trump in 2024 but are represented by a Democrat, or vice versa, to 24 (up from 16), expanding the battleground.

The Real Variable: SCOTUS

The Court is weighing cases on both the Voting Rights Act and mail-in ballot deadlines, with the potential to alter voting rules across more than a dozen states ahead of November.

Where Things Break Open: The VRA Case

If the Court finds Louisiana’s 2024 redistricting plan unconstitutional, it could force a broader reshaping of the House map. States may redraw majority-minority districts in ways that favor Republicans, potentially putting up to a dozen seats in play.

Timing Is the Wildcard

Because the Court has not yet ruled, most 2026 maps are likely to remain unchanged for now. But a late decision could still trigger targeted redraws—or shift outcomes through post-election litigation.

Virginia Map Shakeup

Virginia voters will decide on April 21 whether to keep current maps (6D-5R split) or trigger a full redraw via constitutional amendment, resulting in a new 10D-1R map.

62% of Virginians support the current maps.

Supporters argue the measure responds to aggressive redistricting elsewhere, while opponents warn it would override the state’s bipartisan process.

This is one of the few opportunities for Democrats to gain seats through redistricting, though the outcome hinges on both voter approval and potential legal challenges.

If approved and upheld, the redrawn maps could substantially improve Democrats’ position in the commonwealth’s House delegation.

Special Elections

Georgia’s 14th District

Georgia’s 14th District special election drew nearly 20 candidates to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, with no one reaching a majority. The race now heads to an April 7 runoff between Trump-endorsed Republican Clayton Fuller and Democrat Shawn Harris.

The district is safely Republican, but the contest highlights intra-party dynamics within the GOP and the continued influence of Trump’s endorsement in crowded fields. The vacancy also temporarily narrows Speaker Johnson’s working majority until the seat is filled.

Safe seats still matter—they expose GOP fault lines and test Trump’s influence in crowded fields.

New Jersey’s 11th District

The special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill produced one of the closest races of the cycle. Progressive Analilia Mejia narrowly defeated former Rep. Tom Malinowski by fewer than 1,200 votes, underscoring the divide between the party’s progressive and establishment wings.

Mejia now faces Republican Joe Hathaway in an April 16 special general election in a safely Democratic-leaning district. The result also reflects the growing role of outside spending and ideological messaging in shaping primaries—even in deep-blue seats.

Even in safe blue seats, Democratic primaries are competitive, ideological, and increasingly shaped by outside money.

Don’t Call It A Comeback

Former House Members eye return to Washington

Senate

The GOP’s current majority is a significant buffer, but the declining presidential approval and the geopolitical fallout from the Iran conflict could shift the 2026 battle lines.

Senate Control Still Runs Through a Narrow Map

The Senate remains one of the most competitive battlegrounds of the 2026 cycle. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats must gain four seats to win control. While the structural map remains challenging for Democrats, declining presidential approval and the political fallout from the Iran conflict could reshape the competitive landscape heading into the fall.

Key Takeaways

• Democrats outpaced Republicans in turnout in both Texas and North Carolina—an unusual pattern to watch as the midterms take shape.

• Texas produced the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with more than $100 million in outside spending ahead of the Cornyn–Paxton runoff.

• President Trump has not endorsed in the Texas runoff, leaving one of the most consequential Republican intraparty contests unresolved ahead of the May 26 runoff.

• North Carolina’s general election matchup is now set, with former Gov. Roy Cooper facing former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in what both parties view as a potential tipping-point race for Senate control.

• Early results in Texas also suggested strong Democratic performance in several heavily Hispanic counties.

2026 Senate Races

Democrats' path to net four seats requires flipping at least two seats that favor the GOP.

Primary Recaps

Illinois

A decisive establishment win reshapes the Democratic power dynamic and signals limits of outside influence, like crypto and AI Super PACs.

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won the Democratic primary to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, defeating Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly in a high-stakes, nationally watched contest.

The race was less about ideology than who controls the Democratic Party’s future: governors or Washington-aligned coalitions.

Key Takeaways

• Gov. JB Pritzker gave Stratton significant support, deploying $15M+ to validate his aggressive anti-Trump political strategy.

• Tensions with the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) surfaced, as CBC-backed Robin Kelly fell short, highlighting friction between national Black political leadership and state-level party power.

• Outside spending (crypto and AI super PACs) failed to stop Stratton, despite millions in attack ads.

• Stratton’s win keeps Illinois safely Democratic and contributes to a potential historic number of Black women in the Senate in 2027.

Texas

A $100M+ showdown is heading to a runoff with President Trump still on the sidelines.

The Texas Senate primary heads to a May 26 runoff after Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton both fell short of 50 percent, with Trump still on the sidelines. The March 18 withdrawal deadline has passed, locking both candidates into one of the cycle’s most consequential GOP intraparty fights.

Democrats coalesced around James Talarico after an outright primary win, giving them a resource advantage. Early signs suggest the race could tighten depending on the GOP nominee, though Texas remains structurally Likely Republican.

North Carolina

The potential high-stakes, high-dollar NC Senate race could tip control in 2026.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley secured their nominations, setting up one of the most consequential Senate races of the cycle. With Democrats playing defense in other states, NC is widely viewed as their most plausible pickup opportunity and could ultimately determine Senate control.
Cooper enters with strong statewide name recognition and a history of winning even when President Trump carried the state, while Whatley must translate his national party profile into broader voter familiarity.

Arkansas

A low-drama primary underscores Republican dominance.

• Sen. Tom Cotton defeated Jeb Little and Micah Ashby without difficulty in Republican contest.

• Democrats nominated Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer and farmer.

• No significant outside spending or intraparty divisions emerged.

Arkansas is still deep-red at the federal level, Cotton’s noncompetitive primary underscores his entrenched position, and Democrats are left without a credible path to compete statewide.

Arkansas remains Solid Republican, with little indication of movement heading into November.

Mississippi

A routine primary sets up a predictable three-way general election.

• Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith easily defeated primary challenger Sarah Adlakha.

• Scott Colom emerged as the Democratic nominee from a low-profile primary.

• Independent candidate Ty Pinkins will appear on the general election ballot.

Mississippi remains solidly Republican in federal races, there was little primary infighting from either party, and the independent adds a wrinkle—but not a real path to compete.

Primary Spotlights

Oklahoma

An open seat is quickly consolidating around a frontrunner, while an interim appointment resets the timeline.

OK’s Senate race was upended by Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s move to DHS, triggering both an immediate appointment and a fast-moving race for the permanent seat.

• Gov. Kevin Stitt appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong, who was sworn in on March 24.

• Under state law, the appointee cannot run in the November election.

• Rep. Kevin Hern has emerged as the clear frontrunner, securing endorsements from President Trump and Senate GOP leadership.

• The election winner will take office early to complete the remainder of the term.

Oklahoma remains Solid Republican, with the race shifting from uncertainty to a largely settled GOP contest centered on Hern.

Montana

A late-breaking retirement reshapes the race but not the outlook.

• Kurt Alme entered with backing from President Trump, Sen. Tim Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte, limiting GOP competition.

• Independent candidate Seth Bodnar adds a wildcard with a unique profile.

• Multiple Democrats have filed, raising the risk of a split anti-GOP vote.

Republicans united behind a handpicked successor in a last-minute move that drew backlash but cleared the primary lane; the bigger uncertainty is whether the independent candidate can consolidate anti-Republican vote or whether he and a weak Democratic field split it, leaving MT still leaning GOP.

Montana remains Solid Republican, though the open-seat dynamic makes it one to watch.

Governors

Voters in 36 states will elect governors, with 15 races featuring open seats due to term limits or retirements. Despite high turnover this cycle, the map's partisan balance is unlikely to shift significantly as state issues generally matter more than national political trends in races for governor.

While gubernatorial contests have traditionally been driven by local dynamics, the 2026 cycle is increasingly reflecting national forces, including presidential approval, inflation, and voter concerns about affordability.

• 36 governorships are up, including 15 open seats, increasing volatility across the map.

• Recent rating changes have shifted several competitive races toward Democrats, particularly in battleground states.

• Republicans retain a structural advantage, with more favorable geography and strength in red states.

• Campaign messaging is converging on cost of living, housing affordability, and energy prices.

Key Takeaways

• Democrats are benefiting from early national tailwinds, particularly in open-seat contests.

• Republicans remain positioned to hold more governorships overall, despite increased competition.

• The most competitive races (AZ, GA, MI, NV, WI) will likely determine the partisan breakdown of governorships.

The map is tightening, but Republicans still have the edge, making candidate quality and turnout the deciding factors.

2026 Governors Races

Primary Spotlights

California

A crowded Democratic field is creating a rare structural opening in a deep-blue state.

California’s June 2 primary is one of the cycle’s most unpredictable, with a fragmented Democratic field colliding with the state’s top-two system.

• Vote-splitting is the core risk—eight major Democrats raise the possibility of two Republicans advancing.

• Republicans are consolidating around Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, both competitive in early polling.

• A recent canceled forum limited to the top six candidates excluded several prominent Democrats, underscoring the field’s fragmentation.

• Spending has topped $100M, driven largely by Tom Steyer’s self-funding.

• Housing affordability and cost of living dominate messaging.

Democrats remain favored, but structural risk, not ideology, is the story.

Vermont

A single decision could determine whether Vermont remains an outlier or flips fully blue.

• Gov. Phil Scott’s decision to run or retire is the central variable shaping the race.

• Scott has consistently won statewide despite Vermont’s strong Democrat lean.

• A retirement would likely create a clear opening for Democrats in an open-seat contest.

The GOP’s hold on the Vermont governorship is tied exclusively to Phil Scott’s incumbency. His departure would likely trigger an immediate flip, granting Democrats unified control of the state.

Vermont remains Solid Republican if Scott runs but would shift to Likely Democrat if open.

Ohio

A Republican-leaning state is suddenly in play as candidate dynamics tighten the race.

• Vivek Ramaswamy maintains a significant financial advantage, including major personal and outside spending.

• Polling shows a tight race, with some surveys giving Amy Acton a narrow edge.

• Ramaswamy’s polarizing profile has created openings for Democrats.

• Acton is emphasizing affordability and bipartisan appeal, while Republicans prepare to target her COVID-era record.

Now a Lean Republican contest, the race is a stress test for candidate quality vs. party fundamentals. Democrats have gained ground, but must still navigate a challenging, red-trending electoral map.

Ohio remains Lean Republican, but is now firmly on the competitive map.

Hidden Races, Real Impact

These down-ballot contests will help determine who writes the rules, certifies results, and adjudicates disputes in 2028 and beyond.

Contests for secretary of state, attorney general, and state supreme courts will also shape how voting, certification, and election disputes are handled heading into the next presidential cycle.

These offices control ballot rules, certification, recounts, and election-related litigation. SCOTUS rulings on redistricting and mail-in voting could further shape how votes are cast and counted.

Key Secretary of State Races to Watch

• Arizona: Adrian Fontes seeks reelection as Republicans elevate a 2020 election litigator, setting up a high-contrast race.

• Georgia: An open seat draws a potential clash between establishment Republicans and Trump-aligned contenders.

• Michigan: An open race gives Republicans a reset shot—if they avoid another weak nominee.

• Nevada: Cisco Aguilar defends a battleground seat as Republicans look for a more credible challenger.

Key Offices on the Ballot

• 23 secretaries of state

• 30 attorneys general

• 64 state supreme court seats

Reublicans are still favored to hold more governorship despite tighter races; Democrats are benefiting from early national tailwinds, particularly in open-seat contests.

Key Takeaways

• Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in both Texas and North Carolina, signaling early enthusiasm that will be closely watched as the midterm cycle develops.

• Texas’ Senate race is headed to a high-profile runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, setting up one of the most consequential Republican primaries of the year.

• President Trump’s influence in Republican primaries remains strong, with nearly all candidates he endorsed advancing or winning outright.

• Redistricting and open seats contributed to a difficult night for several incumbents, including the defeat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Texas.

• Outside spending from issue-aligned groups, including pro-Israel, cryptocurrency, and emerging AI-sector political networks, continues to shape primaries.

Turnout: An Early Enthusiasm Test

In Texas, Democratic primary turnout slightly exceeded Republican turnout statewide, an unusual result in a state where GOP primaries have historically drawn more voters. With more than 90 percent of votes counted, roughly 2.2 million Democrats voted in the Senate primary compared to about 2.1 million Republicans. North Carolina showed a similar pattern, with Democratic turnout surpassing Republican participation by roughly 200,000 voters in the Senate primaries.

Because these contests occur during the first midterm election of the president’s second, non-consecutive term, turnout patterns will be closely monitored for early signs of how the traditional midterm backlash against the president’s party shapes this year’s elections. Texas election rules add another wrinkle: voters who participated in the Democratic primary cannot vote in the Republican Senate runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, potentially giving more conservative Republican voters greater influence in the second round.

Texas Senate: Cornyn and Paxton Head to Runoff

Cornyn and Paxton both failed to clear the 50 percent threshold, setting up a May 26 runoff. Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third at roughly 13 percent. The contest has already set records as the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with over $110 million in ad spending, and the runoff may become the most expensive intraparty contest the country has ever seen.

Cornyn’s stronger-than-expected performance, narrowly leading Paxton despite predictions he might trail significantly, should bolster his electability narrative and build donor confidence. It has also triggered renewed efforts by Cornyn allies to persuade President Trump to endorse him ahead of the runoff. Trump stayed neutral during the primary but could play a decisive role. The central question: does the president prioritize electability and back Cornyn, or stay neutral and let the base decide?

The runoff dynamic, however, could be structurally favorable to Paxton. Texas runoffs historically produce a smaller, more ideologically intense electorate, terrain that benefits the harder-line candidate. Whether Hunt’s supporters return to the polls, and whom they back, will be a key variable.

The runoff is expected to become intensely negative and expensive. Cornyn’s campaign and allies have already highlighted Paxton’s legal controversies and impeachment by the Texas House, while Paxton has framed Cornyn as insufficiently aligned with the Trump Administration and the conservative base.

Democratic Nomination

State Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett outright with roughly 53 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff and giving Democrats a clear nominee months before Republicans resolve their internal battle. Talarico’s margin – roughly 53 percent to Crockett’s 46 percent – appears secure and should survive any challenges tied to Dallas County voting disruptions.

Talarico’s victory reflects a broader strategic debate inside the Democratic Party about candidate positioning. Crockett emphasized base mobilization and confrontation with the Trump Administration, while Talarico focused on economic populism and crossover appeal, performing strongly in heavily Hispanic counties and rural areas. The path for Democrats remains steep (the party has not won statewide election in Texas since 1994) and the race remains Likely Republican, though the GOP nominee will determine how competitive the general election becomes.

Redistricting Upends House Races

Texas’ mid-decade congressional map changes produced immediate consequences. The most notable casualty was Rep. Dan Crenshaw, who lost decisively to conservative state Rep. Steve Toth. Crenshaw was the only Texas GOP House incumbent without Trump’s endorsement, and Toth also secured a late endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz.

Several other races remain unresolved or headed to runoffs:

• TX-23 (R): Rep. Tony Gonzales will face gun rights activist Brandon Herrera in a runoff, reprising a close contest from 2024.

• TX-18 (D): Rep. Al Green and newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee appear headed to a runoff in a generational contest.

• TX-33 (D): Rep. Julie Johnson trails former Rep. Colin Allred in a race that will most likely head to a runoff because additional candidates split the vote.

A Reminder of Trump’s Influence

In Texas, all 11 House candidates endorsed by Trump either won outright or advanced to runoffs. Meanwhile, Crenshaw, the only GOP incumbent without Trump’s endorsement, was defeated. Trump’s eventual decision in the Cornyn/Paxton runoff could become one of the most consequential endorsements of the primary season.

North Carolina Senate: Cooper vs. Whatley

Former Gov. Roy Cooper cruised to the Democratic nomination with roughly 92 percent of the vote, while former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley won the GOP primary with about 64 percent, backed by Trump’s endorsement. The two will face off in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper, who has not lost an election in nearly 50 years and won statewide even as Trump carried North Carolina, enters with a commanding fundraising edge ($14.2 million on hand vs. $2.5 million). Democrats view this seat as essential to any path to retaking the Senate, and the race could become the most expensive in the country.

Outside Spending Expands Its Role

Independent expenditure groups aligned with pro-Israel advocacy organizations, cryptocurrency policy networks, and emerging AI policy groups invested heavily in select races. The clearest example, and the sharpest illustration of Democratic intraparty tensions, came in North Carolina’s fourth congressional District, where Rep. Valerie Foushee holds a razor-thin lead over Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam.

Allam was backed by progressive organizations including Justice Democrats and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Foushee benefited from significant outside spending, including from AIPAC-aligned groups and an AI-industry-linked super PAC, with over $4 million in outside money flowing into the race. The race reflects an increasingly common dynamic in congressional primaries: policy-focused outside groups playing a major role in determining which candidates emerge from safe districts.

Competitive Races to Watch

Several November battlegrounds are taking shape. In TX-34, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez faces Trump-backed Republican Eric Flores in a district trending right. Both parties will hold runoffs in TX-35, which redistricting shifted toward Republicans. In NC-1, Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces a rematch with Laurie Buckhout in a district Trump would have carried by double digits. In NC-11, Democrat Jamie Ager will challenge Rep. Chuck Edwards in a seat that could become competitive depending on the national environment.

Looking Ahead

• Will Trump endorse Cornyn or Paxton, prioritizing electability or base loyalty?

• Will Democratic turnout advantages persist as the primary calendar expands?

• How disruptive will mid-decade redistricting prove in other states?

• Can Cooper maintain his advantages against Whatley in what may become the most expensive Senate race in history?

The next major test comes with Texas’s May 26 runoff elections, where several races, including the pivotal Senate contest, will shape the general election battlefield.

To read more of our takes in the first issue of Invariant’s Election Update.

2026 House Landscape

State of Play

With razor-thin margins and ongoing redistricting changes, control of the House remains up for grabs heading into 2026. While the party in the White House historically loses House seats in the first midterm, the outcomes of unprecedented mid-decade redistricting in multiple states could outweigh national mood in determining the House majority.

President’s party nearly always loses seats in first midterm

1994 - Clinton (D) - 54 seats

2010 - Obama (D) - 63 seats

2018 - Trump (R) - 40 seats

2022 - Biden (D) - 9 seats

2026 Senate Landscape

State of Play

Republicans are the favorite to maintain control of the Senate in 2026, despite defending more seats this cycle. Democrats face a tough road to the majority, defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024 and multiple open primaries. GOP seats up this cycle are largely safe, with Republicans defending only one seat in a state won by Harris in 2024.

Redistricting Watch

State of Play

While congressional redistricting typically takes place every 10 years (timed with the census), with a historically tight margin in the House of Representatives, redistricting has become a critical tactic to shape the 2026 midterm election. In response to President Trump’s demands that Republican-led states redistrict their maps to make it harder for Democrats to gain House control, multiple states are now making moves to redraw their maps in an effort that could determine control of the House.

So far, Republicans have enacted new Republican-favored maps in four states (Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio), California voters approved a ballot measure this week that will result in a new map that will benefit Democrats, and Utah’s court-ordered redraw could help Democrats gain a seat. Meanwhile, other states are considering drawing new maps, and legal challenges to some states’ redistricting efforts are underway.

Swing Seats

Democrats in Seats Won by Trump

House

• Adam Gray (CA-13)

• Josh Harder (CA-9)

• Open Seat (ME-2)

• Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)

• Don Davis (NC-1)

• Nellie Pou (NJ-9)

• Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)

• Susie Lee (NV-3)

• Tom Suozzi (NY-3)

• Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)

• Henry Cuellar ( TX -28)

• Vicente Gonzalez ( TX -34)

• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez ( WA-3)

Senate

• Jon Ossoff (GA)

• Open Seat (MI)

Republicans in Seats Won by Harris

House

• Open Seat (NE-2)

• Mike Lawler (NY-17)

• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1)

Senate

• Susan Collins (ME)

Competetive Races

House: 68

Senate: 9

Approximate as of 11/6/25 and subject to change; includes toss-ups and leans / likely seats

Election at a Glance

Presidential: Less than a week before Election Day, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is essentially a coin toss. Recent polls shifted slightly in Trump’s favor in the seven battleground states that will determine the election. However, all battleground state polls remain within the margin of error. Looking back at the timeline of media decision desk calls in 2020 provides insight into how next week could play out if, once again, only thousands of votes in a few key states decide the next president. State election procedure updates over the past four years will also impact the timing of results.

Senate: If recent polls are accurate, Republicans are all but certain to take the Senate majority. In several key states, Senate Republican candidates are trailing Trump, meaning Democrats could retain seats in states that award their electoral college votes to Trump. However, it now appears unlikely that Democrats will secure the significant ticket-splitting in both Montana and Ohio or upsets in Republican-held seats in Texas or Florida needed to hold onto Senate control.

House: Both parties’ path to control of the House of Representatives depends on several dozen competitive races. It could take days or weeks to determine which party who holds the gavels next year due to narrow margins and the potential for many too-close-to-call races on election night.

Governors: Just four of the 11 gubernatorial races this cycle are competitive. All eyes are on New Hampshire as the race with the tightest margin and the best chance for a party flip. Democrats are working to maintain control of Washington and North Carolina, while Republicans are protecting Indiana from a long-shot party change.

Presidential

With less than a week until Election Day, early voting and mail-in voting are well underway. Recent polls show support for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump narrowing to their closest margins this cycle. While Trump holds a slight lead in some national polls, current polling averages show less than two points separating the candidates in all battleground states. Although Trump has a slight polling edge in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Harris is up slightly in Michigan, polls are too close to accurately convey who is in the lead in the campaign’s final days. As the New York Times polling expert Nate Cohn reminded readers last week, “[t]he election…is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters.”

Final Days on the Trail

Harris and Trump are delivering their closing arguments in the battleground states. In an unusual move this close to Election Day, both candidates are also campaigning in states they have little chance of winning to amplify their message, fundraise, boost down-ballot races, and win over key voting groups. Trump recently held rallies in traditional Democratic strongholds like California, Colorado, Illinois, and New York, arguing Democratic leaders in those states mismanaged immigration, crime, and the economy. Meanwhile, Harris campaigned in Houston, Texas, alongside Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) and Beyoncé, while vice-presidential nominee Governor Tim Walz campaigned in Kentucky. Harris also delivered her final major address before the election from the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, D.C., drawing a sharp contrast between her and Trump, describing him as someone “consumed with grievance and out for unchecked power.”

In the campaign’s final days, Harris is focused on reversing the erosion of support from traditional Democratic voting blocs, particularly Black and Hispanic voters. While Black voters backed the Biden-Harris ticket by a 75-point margin and Hispanic voters by 33 points, Harris’ margin slipped this fall to 65 points among Black voters and 14 points with Hispanic voters. To help narrow this gap, Harris turned to former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama to host a series of rallies in key battleground states to energize and turn out voters. Harris also made a concerted effort to reach out directly to Black churchgoers in key states, unveiled a new economic agenda to support Black men, invested in Spanish-language media appearances, and hosted a series of events focused on courting Hispanic voters.

Along with shoring up support from traditionally Democratic voting blocs, Harris’ campaign is courting Independent and Republican voters concerned about a second Trump term. She participated in an interview with Fox News and ran ads in battleground states featuring Republicans endorsing her campaign. Harris held an event with her Republican surrogates in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a crucial swing area in the key battleground state with more registered Republican voters than Democrats, and co-hosted events in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). Her running mate, Tim Walz, also made a pitch to rural voters at the farm of a former Trump voter in western Pennsylvania.

Trump is wooing male and low-propensity voters in an effort to boost turnout among his most ardent supporters by joining nontraditional podcasts and events. This included an event at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, where Trump handed out french fries at the drive-thru window. Both Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), participated in interviews on podcasts popular with men aged 18–36, including an interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast, which has over 19 million followers on Spotify. Trump also attended an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fight and football games, courted endorsements from former professional athletes, and made media appearances to reach Black and Hispanic men.

Both campaigns are targeting suburban voters, who make up about half of the electorate and backed President Biden by about six points in 2020. While Trump led Biden among these voters in June and July by three points, Harris now holds a six-point lead. Harris is courting suburban women who voted for Nikki Haley, emphasizing her economic agenda and support for reproductive rights and stressing the importance of preserving democracy.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign opened an office in Reading, Pennsylvania, to strengthen its presence in suburban areas and hosted a town hall in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. At the event, he discussed his tax plan, inflation, and high mortgage interest rates, seeking to appeal to suburban voters. In Michigan, the Trump campaign is also working to strengthen ties with college-educated suburbanites.

Which Candidate is in the Lead?

With polls this close, it is difficult to suggest that one candidate has an advantage heading into Election Day. However, given that polling in the past two presidential elections largely overstated Democrats’ standing, some Democrats are increasingly concerned that this cycle’s narrower polling margins could again underestimate Trump’s strength. In 2020, Biden won by very narrow margins despite polling over five percentage points ahead in many battleground states. This cycle, Harris is polling below where Biden was in these swing states at this time in the race.

An End to the “Harris Honeymoon”?

Signs indicate that Harris may be losing ground among key demographics, in important states, and on critical issues. In such a tight election, even small shifts are significant, as just 77,596 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College in 2020. In a survey conducted from September 28 through October 8, 40 percent of battleground state Independent voters said they would vote for Harris, while 39 percent preferred Trump. As recently as August, Harris led Trump by eight points among the same demographic, indicating a significant narrowing. Additionally, Harris’ favorability declined after peaking in late September.

Further, as of late September, 52 percent of voters reported that the economy is an “extremely important” factor in their presidential vote, the highest since the Great Recession. This trend is particularly strong among Independents. Trump still leads Harris by a nine-point margin when voters are asked which candidate will better handle the economy. However, this is a significant improvement for Harris compared to Biden’s polling on the issue.

Harris’ momentum with Democratic base voters has stagnated in recent weeks, though she has boosted her support among other demographics compared to Biden in 2020. Harris has a 23-point lead over Trump among young voters, a five-point drop from her margin in August, and roughly even with Biden’s 2020 margin. Her support is lagging among young Black and Hispanic men. However, Harris has improved her standing with white voters with a college degree compared to Biden’s 2020 performance. She has also improved on Biden’s performance with white voters without a college degree by six percentage points. Finally, she holds a six-point lead among white women voters, a significant 17-point swing compared to Biden’s margin in 2020. This comes as recent polling shows that abortion continues to be a top motivating issue for voters this election.

Meanwhile, Trump expanded his support with the Republican base while chipping into Democrats’ typical base. White and non-college-educated voters shifted toward Trump by a margin of two to three points since the summer. He also appears poised to gain more votes from Black and Hispanic voters than any modern Republican presidential candidate. Still, the gender gap poses a threat to Trump, as white women represent the electorate’s largest voting bloc, and women turn out to vote at a higher rate than men.

Don’t Hold Your Breath (On Results)

The 2020 presidential election was the first since 2000 to be called more than a day after Election Day. Timely results will be critical amid concerns about the potential spread of misinformation and mistrust between Election Day and the certification of results. According to Pew Research, 74 percent of voters fear Trump will not concede the election if he loses. Trump alleged voter fraud in 2016 and 2020, suggesting he could again contest the results in 2024 and potentially delay election results. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are prepared for lengthy litigation disputes in multiple states and localities over electoral process-related issues. In a preview of the likely onslaught of election challenges, courts are already considering 165 lawsuits filed related to the 2024 election.

Experts are concerned that the 2024 presidential race will take several days to call. Some states have passed new hurdles to vote-counting processes, while others maintain outdated rules that slow the tabulation of results. Initial reporting on early voting is likely to favor Democrats, as in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a spike in absentee ballots — the additional processing and tabulation time delayed results in many key battleground states. Recounts could also slow final results, though only 0.5 percent of statewide races are recounted. Since the controversial recount in 2000, 92 percent of recounts confirm, rather than reverse, the initial outcome.

Key battleground states could take several days to report sufficient results for news organizations to project the winner.

Arizona: While Fox News and AP called Arizona for Biden on election night in 2020, most other media outlets did not call the state until 10 days after Election Day, as the margin of Biden’s victory grew slimmer by the day. Official results are expected to be delayed in Arizona, partly due to its signature verification process for absentee ballots. On the other hand, the drop in absentee ballots this year may result in faster counting than in 2020. As of October 21, 2024, only 689,350 absentee ballots had been returned in Arizona, while 1,021,016 absentee ballots were cast at this point in 2020.

Georgia: In 2020, decision desks called Georgia 16 days after Election Day, following a hand-tally recount of the presidential election. This cycle, the Georgia State Election Board attempted to require all ballots to be hand-counted on election night and to add verification requirements for absentee ballots. The Fulton County Superior Court placed a hold on the hand-count requirement, citing that the rule was approved too close to Election Day. The absentee ballot verification requirement could lead more people to cast early votes in person rather than by mail, which could speed up counting on Election Day. In fact, as of October 21, 2024, only 88,663 Georgia voters sent in absentee ballots after eight days of early voting, while 756,629 absentee ballots were cast within the same time frame in 2020.

Michigan: Media organizations called Michigan the day after Election Day in 2020. Since then, the Michigan legislature passed reforms allowing mail-in ballots to be processed and tabulated up to eight days before Election Day, along with other improvements designed to accelerate the process of tabulating in-person early vote ballots.

Nevada: The AP called Nevada four days after Election Day in 2020. This year, county clerks can tabulate in-person early ballots when polls open on Election Day rather than after polls close. Nevada also began processing and tabulating mail-in ballots on October 21, which could yield faster results.

North Carolina: It took 10 days for the media to call North Carolina in 2020. Experts predict that new election procedures could lengthen wait times at polling sites and increase the number of provisional ballots, which could delay vote tabulation. However, as of October 20, 2024, over one million voters cast their ballots in the state, primarily through in-person early voting. North Carolina’s State Board of Elections reported that fewer voters will use absentee ballots in 2024 than in 2020, which could speed up vote counting this cycle.

Pennsylvania: Four days after Election Day 2020, analysts called Pennsylvania. This decision was critical as it led major news outlets to declare Biden as the presumptive president-elect. Experts expect results in Pennsylvania to take days to call if there are high numbers of absentee ballots, which cannot be processed and tabulated until Election Day.

Wisconsin: The media called Wisconsin the day after Election Day in 2020. High rates of early voting and absentee ballots combined with tight margins could again delay the state’s results.

Last-Ditch Spending

The Harris campaign continued its fundraising success in September, raising $221.8 million, compared to Trump’s $62.7 million. Harris ended September with $187.5 million in cash on hand, while Trump’s campaign reported $119.7 million.

Harris and Democratic-backed super PACs are outspending Republicans on television ads and digital media. From July 22 to October 9, the Harris campaign’s $456.3 million spent on television ads more than doubled the Trump campaign’s $204.3 million spent. According to data from AdImpact, from October 11 through Election Day, the Trump campaign and his supporting outside groups plan to spend more on television advertisements than Harris and her supporting outside groups in Pennsylvania. However, the Harris camp reserved at least $6 million more ad space in every other battleground state over the same period.

Senate

If the latest Senate battleground state polls hold on Election Day, Republicans will control the Senate in the 119th Congress. However, with all four Midwest Senate battleground races (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) now rated as Toss-Ups, the Republican Senate majority will likely depend on the size of the margin of the presidential race in those states.

Democrats are ramping up investments in the battleground states to reach key voter bases while allocating additional resources in Florida and Texas as potential pickup opportunities. If they fail to flip any Republican seats, significant split ticket voting in both the red states of Montana and Ohio will be their only chance to maintain Senate control. Across the Rust Belt, Trump is outperforming Senate Republican challengers. Democratic hopes rely on narrow Trump victories that are likely insufficient to carry down ballot Republican Senate candidates. Midwestern Republican Senate candidates’ inability to match Trump’s support in their states could mean the difference between a 51–49 GOP majority and a 53- or 54-seat majority.

Arizona (Lean Democrat): While polls indicate that Trump has a slight edge over Harris in Arizona, Republican Senate candidate and former news anchor Kari Lake is still trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) despite her close alliance with Trump and his agenda. Even with Gallego’s vocal opposition to Trump, current polls indicate that some Arizona voters may be splitting their ticket. Gallego and Lake faced off in a debate in Phoenix on October 9th. Lake accused Gallego of having a political “makeover” and highlighted his progressive record, attacking his views on immigration and border security. Gallego fired back by emphasizing Lake’s ties to Trump, her shifting stance on abortion, and her questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

Florida (Likely Republican): Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has a significant advantage against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). Still, the race remains competitive, with Scott’s support lagging behind Trump’s. A referendum on the state’s 2023 six-week abortion ban, enacted after the reversal of Roe v. Wade, is a key issue in the race. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found support for the measure (46 percent) falling short of the 60 percent necessary for passage. Mucarsel-Powell is using the ballot measure to drive Democratic turnout. Scott, on the other hand, prefers a 15-week ban but opposes the referendum and says he would have signed the state’s 6-week abortion ban if he were governor. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) invested in a multi-million dollar ad buy in Florida in a last-ditch effort to flip the seat and hold onto their majority. Additionally, after spending nearly $8 million of his own money, Scott launched another $10 million ad campaign targeting voters in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami.

Maryland (Likely Democrat): Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) leads former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) by double digits in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). The race has largely centered on abortion rights after Hogan declared he would vote to codify Roe v. Wade, breaking with other Republicans and Trump on the issue. Alsobrooks will need to repeat strong turnout in her home county, which helped springboard her to a decisive victory in the primary. Her campaign spent millions on ads attacking Hogan as someone who cannot be trusted on abortion and who would be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s policies in the Senate. However, Hogan’s popularity from his tenure as the state’s moderate governor and his vocal opposition to Trump could make him a formidable split-ticket candidate in a traditionally Democratic state. A pro-Hogan super PAC spent $19 million on ads alleging Alsobrooks improperly claimed tax breaks. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Maryland since 1974.

Michigan (Toss-Up): Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) as she looks to replace retiring longtime Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). Rogers criticized former President Trump shortly after the January 6 attack on the Capitol, but he has since repaired his relationship with the former president and secured Trump’s endorsement. The race at the top of the ticket is dead even while Rogers is polling behind Slotkin. Both candidates are emphasizing their national security expertise and experience. Meanwhile, Slotkin could lose support from Arab American voters concerned over her support for Israel. The Dearborn-based Arab American Political Action Committee urged the over 300,000 Arab Americans in the state not to vote for either Republican or Democratic candidates. In a tight race, serious defections from this “uncommitted” group could sway the race in Rogers’ favor. However, Slotkin is ahead in the Five Thirty-Eight polling average, and Quinnipiac polls from October 9 to October 21 shifted from a 48–48 tie to a 52–44 advantage for Slotkin with a 2.9 percent margin of error.

Ohio (Toss-Up): Bernie Moreno (R) continues to cut into incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) narrow lead. Moreno hopes his close ties to Trump, who won Ohio by eight points in 2016 and 2020, will help him repeat JD Vance’s (R-OH) win, where Trump’s endorsement helped propel the now vice-presidential nominee to victory two years ago. Moreno attacked Brown for being a “career politician” and supporting Harris’ “radical” policies on immigration and the economy. Brown is touting his Senate record while accusing Moreno of running for personal gain and attacking his lack of experience. Moreno’s recent comments on suburban women seeking abortions could impact his momentum. In a state where Trump is projected to win by a wide margin, Brown hopes his populist appeal and connections to union and working-class voters will produce enough split-ticket votes to win another term.

Montana (Lean Republican): Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy’s (R) lead over incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) continues to increase in a race that will likely decide Senate control. Sheehy’s “Send in the SEAL” campaign continues to blast Tester for supporting the Biden-Harris Administration on hot-button issues, including immigration, crime, and the economy. Sheehy recently sought to tie Tester to lobbyists. However, despite Tester’s current seven-point deficit in the Real Clear Polling average, his campaign raised $32 million during the third quarter, underscoring how important the race is to the Democrats’ chances of maintaining the majority. Additionally, with support from the DSCC, Tester launched ads tying Sheehy and the millionaires who have recently moved to Montana to ongoing problems in the state. Tester is no stranger to tough races; he won narrowly in 2012 and 2018. However, this is Tester’s first race in a presidential year in a state that supported Trump by nearly 17 points in 2020 and by 20 points in 2016.

Nebraska (Lean Republican): In a surprisingly competitive contest, Navy veteran and union leader Dan Osborn (I-NE) is running a tight race against two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE). Both the Fischer and Osborn campaigns tout an advantage in internal polls. Fischer’s poll shows her leading 48–42 percent with 10 percent undecided, whereas Osborn’s poll shows him leading 47–42 percent with 10 percent undecided. Supported by the Retire Career Politicians PAC, Osborn outspent the incumbent by more than $2.5 million and continues to target Nebraska’s moderate voter base. Due to the shifting dynamics of the race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) recently spent $552,000 on ads supporting Fischer, including a new ad featuring Trump. In an attempt to sway voters, Trump stated that the Independent challenger was a “radical left” candidate and a “Democrat in disguise.” Osborn has said he will not caucus with either party if elected. Cook Political Report recently changed its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

Nevada (Lean Democrat): Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) maintains a steady lead against her Republican opponent, Army veteran Sam Brown, despite a narrow Trump lead in the state. Rosen is currently leading Brown by around five percent in polling averages. Rosen outraised Brown in every quarter and spent nearly $64 million since the start of her campaign. The incumbent nearly broke a Nevada Senate fundraising record set by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in 2022 after raising over $12 million in the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the NRSC and Brown recently spent $331,000 on a hybrid ad strategy focusing on social security, taxes, and inflation.

Pennsylvania (Toss-Up): Challenger Dave McCormick (R) cut the Real Clear Politics polling average in half in his effort to oust Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). Cook Political Report recently shifted from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” In their second debate, McCormick blamed Casey for Pennsylvania’s economic problems and inflation. Casey labeled McCormick, a former hedge fund manager, “out-of-touch” with Pennsylvanians. Abortion remains a key issue in the state. McCormick moderated his stance on the issue after supporting the reversal of Roe v. Wade. He questioned Casey’s commitment to the issue by reminding voters that the senator used to identify as pro-life. Casey acknowledges that this is his toughest race yet but continues to poll ahead of Harris.

Texas (Lean Republican): Hoping to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas in nearly 40 years, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) continues to chip away at incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) lead in the Real Clear Polling average. This is a longshot race Democrats may need to win to maintain their majority. Allred has financial momentum, outraising Cruz by nearly $10 million during the third quarter. Democrats launched ads attacking Cruz on abortion, featuring women blaming the senator for their hardships following the reversal of Roe v. Wade. Cruz continues to attack Allred on the U.S.-Mexico border, claiming Allred would “dismantle the southern border and would be weak on immigration.” Cruz narrowly defeated former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) in 2018 by just two and a half points. However, compared to that midterm campaign, Cruz will benefit from Trump’s popularity at the top of the ticket.

Wisconsin (Toss-Up): The Wisconsin Senate race shifted from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in a concerning sign for Democrats. Republican challenger Eric Hovde received support from the Senate Leadership Fund through ads claiming incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is “pushing an aggressive LGBTQ agenda on kids” by directing taxpayer dollars to a clinic that provides care for transgender children. Baldwin denies the accusations and is outspending Hovde’s campaign by more than $10 million.

Fundraising

The 2024 Senate election cycle will conclude with record-shattering fundraising numbers. In the previous third quarter alone, reports show incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) leading with a reported $30.6 million raised, with Texas Senate hopeful Rep. Colin Allred (R-TX) close behind with an all-time high of $30.3 million raised. Arizona candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) was not too far behind with record highs of nearly $22 million, and incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz followed with $21 million raised. Spending on these races is also seeing its fair share of recorded highs, thanks to the involvement of PACs such as the NRSC and DSCC. Montana had a record-shattering $250 million spent on its race — the most ever in that state. In the Pennsylvania Senate race alone, $317 million has been spent so far — out of nearly $1 billion in total across all the state’s elections. This is a vital battleground for both the Senate majority and the presidency. Topping everyone is Ohio’s Senate race, with a whopping $400 million spent and counting as of October.

The DSCC raised a little over $28 million during September and ended the month with $37.3 million in cash on hand. Meanwhile, the NRSC raised $30 million during the same month and has $21 million in cash on hand.

House

Roughly 70 competitive House races will determine the majority. Cook Political Report rates 25 districts Toss-Ups and 18 districts leaning either Democrat or Republican. Among the 27 other competitive seats, Democrats are likely to win 17, and Republicans will likely retain control of 10. Given the potential for many too-close-to-call races on election night, determining which party will ultimately control the House could take days or weeks. California’s slow vote-counting process could delay results, given the number of competitive races in the state this cycle. In 2022, it took 13 days to finalize the results to confirm that Republicans took back the majority. Delays in the certification of election results could also be a factor. In 2022, Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D-PA) race was not certified until November 30, two days following Pennsylvania’s November 28 deadline. With a December 5, 2024, deadline for race certification in California, it is possible it could take weeks after Election Day to resolve tight races in the state.

The below provides the current state of play in the country’s most competitive House races as we head into the final week of the election cycle.

Race Spotlights

AK-AL (Toss-Up): Following Alaska’s open primary, in which Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) secured over 50 percent of the vote, Peltola will face Republican Nick Begich, grandson of former Rep. Nick Begich, Sr. (D-AK). While Republicans are united behind Begich, Peltola faces the unexpected complication of a second Democrat on the ballot — Eric Hafner, currently serving a federal prison sentence in New York. Under Alaska’s election law, the top four finishers from the primary election advance to the general election. Despite receiving just 0.4 percent of the vote in the primary, Hafner qualified for the general election after two higher-vote-getting Republicans departed the race. Recent internal polling from House Republicans shows Begich leading Peltola by four points with 14 percent undecided.

AZ-01 (Toss-Up): Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) faces a challenge from Democratic state representative and doctor Amish Shah for this Phoenix and Scottsdale-based district. Schweikert, a seven-term incumbent, won by just over 3,200 votes in 2022. Whether Schweikert can hold the seat largely depends on his ability to outperform Trump. Under the district’s current boundaries, Biden won the district by 1.5 percent in 2020. With the electorate’s large population of college-educated suburbanites, it is a bellwether seat that has steadily shifted more Democratic over the past few election cycles. Shah frequently criticizes Schweikert’s stance on reproductive rights and Democratic groups recently unearthed a comment made by Schweikert in 2022 that women who get abortions “hate that baby.” Meanwhile, Schweikert accused Shah of being soft on border security and said Shah’s lack of support for extending Trump’s tax policies will mean higher taxes for voters. Two Democratic polls from August and September found support for the candidates within the margin of error.

AZ-06 (Toss-Up): Former Democratic state legislator Kirsten Engel is in a rematch against first-term incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ). Ciscomani, who narrowly defeated Engel by just over 5,000 votes in 2022, has positioned himself as a moderate within the House Republican Caucus, focusing his campaign on issues like the economy and border security. However, Engel challenges Ciscomani’s position on topics such as reproductive rights to draw a sharp contrast on social issues. Polling is sparse, but a July survey funded by Democrats showed a one-point edge for Engel, while Ciscomani’s internal polling from May showed him up 11 points.

CA-13 (Toss-Up): Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) will meet Democratic challenger Adam Gray in a rematch of the second-closest 2022 House race. The Central Valley seat, which Biden won by 11 points in 2020, is a key potential pickup for House Democrats. A September poll sponsored by the Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy has Gray leading Duarte by two points, within the margin of error. The result of this competitive seat will heavily depend on Latino turnout, a demographic that makes up nearly two-thirds of the district’s electorate. In the September poll, Latino voters preferred Gray over Duarte by 6.5 percent, although 18 percent were undecided.

CA-16 (Solid Democrat): In this all-Democratic race to fill retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-CA) Bay Area seat, California Assemblyman Evan Low and San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo are in a tight race. In September, polling from the Long Beach Center for Politics and Policy showed Liccardo with a modest lead, and previous head-to-head polling showed Liccardo as the frontrunner. However, 40 percent of voters were still undecided at the time of the survey. In an October debate, the two Democrats attacked each other’s records while in their respective offices. Low was critical of Liccardo’s record on public safety while mayor. At the same time, Liccardo accused Low of breaking campaign ethics laws by using state money intended for state races while running for federal office.

CA-22 (Toss-Up): Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and former Democratic state assemblyman Rudy Salas are in a rematch of the 2022 election. Valadao is distancing himself from Trump and House Republicans and touting his bipartisan approach in Congress. Recent polling is mixed, showing either a tight race where the candidates are tied at 45 percent apiece or a four-point lead for Salas, buoyed by new voters and voters who did not vote in 2022. Biden won this district by 13 points in 2020, and Democrats hold a 17-point registration advantage. A high turnout will favor Salas.

CA-27 (Toss-Up): The race between incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) and Democrat George Whitesides in this Northern Los Angeles County district is one of the tightest in the state. The Long Beach Center for Politics and Policy poll shows a dead heat, with 44 percent supporting Whitesides and 43 percent backing Garcia. Whitesides’ lead extends to 48 percent when undecided voters are pushed to choose versus Garcia’s 46 percent. The outcome of this race will depend on undecided and split-ticket voters. Biden carried the district by 12 points in 2020.

CA-41 (Toss-Up): The Chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Ken Calvert (R-CA) faces a rematch with Democrat Will Rollins (D) in what will likely be his toughest race since his first election in 1992. After losing by five points in 2022, Rollins seeks to make up that ground and unseat a Republican in a district seeing rapid demographic changes. The Long Beach Center for Politics and Policy poll shows the race in a dead heat.

CA-45 (Toss-Up): Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) faces a challenge from consumer rights attorney Derek Tran (D-CA) in a district that covers a swath of predominantly Asian communities in Orange County. In a seat where Vietnamese Americans make up about 20 percent of the electorate, in 2022 Steel — who is Korean — attacked a different Democratic opponent, Jay Chen, by arguing he was a communist sympathizer and tied to China. While Democrats criticized Steel’s tactics, she won convincingly in a district President Biden carried in 2020. Steel is making similar attacks against Tran, though her attacks may not play as well the second time, given that Tran is the son of Vietnamese refugees. A recent poll shows Steel narrowly trailing Tran.

CO-08 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) is facing Republican state representative Gabe Evans in a district that spans much of Denver’s northeastern suburbs. According to recent polls, Caraveo, who narrowly won the district in 2022 by about 1,600 votes, is running neck and neck with Evans. An early October Emerson College poll showed Caraveo and Evans tied at 44 percent with 12 percent undecided.

IA-01 (Toss-Up): On her fourth attempt in 2020, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) secured her victory to Congress by just six votes. Though she won re-election more handily in 2022, her rematch against Democratic candidate Christina Bohannan is expected to be competitive, especially after Miller-Meeks’ disappointing primary showing, where she won by only 12 points against a little-known challenger. After national election forecasters shifted their race predictions from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” this district is now in the national spotlight. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) recently joined a rally for Miller-Meeks in Indianola, Iowa, to increase enthusiasm for the two-term Republican, indicating that the party is concerned about the race.

IA-03 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) is facing a challenge from former deputy chief of staff to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Lanon Baccam (D-IA). The candidates recently faced off in their lone debate, where reproductive rights and health care access took center stage. The race tightened recently, and Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up” in early October.

ME-02 (Toss-Up): This district is the second-most rural district in the country and the second whitest (only Kentucky’s Fifth District bests it in both categories). The district also voted for Trump by seven points in 2020. However, Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) remains a popular figure who has successfully cast himself as an Independent, often bucking his party on issues from climate change to the border. Though Golden remains popular in the district, NASCAR driver and Republican state representative Austin Theriault hopes that a decisive Trump victory in rural Maine will send him to Washington.

MI-07 (Toss-Up): Two former state senators, Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett, are locked in a tight race for Michigan’s open Seventh District, which spans the Lansing area and covers some of Detroit’s western suburbs. Barrett recently came under fire from Democrats for an advertisement that listed the wrong election date in a Black-owned newspaper. While the Barrett campaign said this was nothing more than a proofing error, Democrats have sought to paint it as an attempt to suppress the heavily Democratic Black vote. Though Barrett lost by over five points in his last run for this seat against current Senate candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Republicans see this district as one of their best pickup opportunities.

MI-08 (Toss-Up): Republican Paul Junge, a former external affairs director at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), is running for a third time in this mid-Michigan seat based in Flint and the Tri-Cities. After losing to the retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) in 2020 and 2022, Junge now faces Democratic state senator Kristen McDonald Rivet in an open race. This region of Michigan has been shifting in favor of Republicans over the past several years, and Junge hopes to finally flip this seat.

MT-01 (Lean Republican): Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) and Olympian rower Democrat Monica Tranel are facing off to represent Montana’s First District. The two ran against each other in 2022, when Zinke defeated Tranel by three percentage points, a drastically tighter margin than the 16.4 points that Trump bested Biden by in the state in the 2020 presidential election. Skyrocketing housing costs due to the population increase in Montana are a key issue in the campaign. Tranel criticized Zinke for operating a rental property, accusing him of profiting from the housing crisis. Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from “Likely” to “Lean Republican.”

NC-01 (Toss-Up): After redistricting reconfigured the district to favor the GOP, Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout hopes to make history by flipping North Carolina’s First District for the first time since 1883. Despite the challenging map, incumbent Rep. Don Davis’ (D-NC) moderate reputation and deep ties to the district have bolstered his chances of protecting the seat. As the only toss-up House race in the state, the contest is drawing millions of dollars in outside funding, with both parties reserving another $7 million each for the campaign’s final weeks.

NE-02 (Toss-Up): Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) is no stranger to close races, serving four terms in Nebraska’s Democratic-leaning Second District. This year, he faces a rematch against Democratic state senator Tony Vargas, who he defeated by two points in 2022. Given Nebraska’s manner of allocating electoral votes based on the winner of congressional districts, the Omaha-area district is drawing national attention, with Harris favored to win one of the state’s three electoral votes.

NJ-07 (Lean Republican): In the state’s only competitive race, incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) hopes to fend off Democratic candidate Sue Altman. Kean is painting Altman as a far-left extremist based on her record as executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Alliance. While Altman is a strong fundraiser — raising $2.1 million in the third quarter alone — she remains relatively unknown. She faces an onslaught of negative ads funded by the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF). Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican.”

NM-02 (Toss-Up): Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) is in a rematch against former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM), who he previously defeated by a narrow 1,300-vote margin. While the 2024 rematch will likely be another close race, recent polling shows Vasquez gaining momentum. Two third-party polls in late August and September show Vasquez leading Herrell by 10 and 9 points, respectively.

NY-04 (Toss-Up): In a district that Democrats view as a key pickup opportunity, freshman incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) is defending his seat in a rematch against Democratic candidate Laura Gillen. D’Esposito won the seat by four percent in 2022, despite Biden carrying the district by nearly 10 percent in 2020. Gillen is focused on reproductive rights and anti-corruption in the wake of recent allegations that D’Esposito had a romantic partner and his fiancée’s daughter on his congressional payroll. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and House Majority PAC are investing heavily to flip the seat this cycle.

NY-17 (Toss-Up): After a month of significant ad spending, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) closed the gap to a one-point deficit against freshman incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY). Democrats are suing to disqualify Anthony Frascone from appearing on the Working Families Party ballot line, claiming Republicans propped up the unknown candidate to siphon votes from Jones. While Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in this Westchester and Hudson Valley-based district, Lawler effectively established himself as a moderate in Washington and made inroads with labor groups in the district.

NY-19 (Toss-Up): The rematch between freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Democratic candidate Josh Riley is among the most bitter and expensive House races this cycle. The campaign has already cost the candidates over $35.5 million in ads, and the race is viewed as a national bellwether on reproductive rights and the border. Democrats hope Harris’ presence at the top of the ticket will help boost turnout for Riley, who lost to Molinaro in 2022 by less than two points.

NY-22 (Lean Democrat): Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY) is considered this cycle’s most vulnerable House incumbent after the district shifted to a Biden plus 11 in New York’s recent redistricting. That said, Republicans have not given up. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) and CLF are running ads tying Democratic candidate state senator John Mannion to contentious bail reform policies passed by the New York legislature and to Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), whose favorability rating slipped below Trump’s in New York. Despite this, Mannion has been leading in polls over recent months.

OH-09 (Lean Democrat): Of the five Democrats representing districts won by then President Trump in 2020, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) is considered one of the best positioned to win re-election. First elected to Congress in 1982, Kaptur witnessed the political winds shift in Northwest Ohio. Republicans hoped 2022 would be their chance to oust Kaptur but failed to flip the seat after a poor performance from controversial candidate J.R. Majewski (R). While the GOP has more faith in state representative Derrick Merrin, leader of the Ohio House Republican Caucus, polling shows Kaptur consistently ahead.

OH-13 (Lean Democrat): Freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) is battling former Republican state legislator Kevin Coughlin in Ohio’s 13th District, which spans the cities of Akron and Canton. Sykes, one of a few Black lawmakers representing a predominantly white district, is highlighting her constituent services work and federal funds flowing into the district. At the same time, Coughlin is focused on national issues and is attempting to tie Sykes to both Biden and Harris. An August poll conducted by the National Journal shows Skyes with a 4-point lead over Coughlin.

OR-05 (Toss-Up): After narrowly defeating progressive candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) faces what will likely be a tougher challenge against Democratic state senator Janelle Bynum this November. Moderate Democrat Bynum previously defeated Chavez-DeRemer in two elections for the state house. A poll conducted in August found this race essentially tied.

PA-07 (Toss-Up): Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) is working to hold on to her purple district in a deadlocked race against Republican state representative Ryan Mackenzie. The district is seen as a presidential bellwether and voted for the Electoral College winner in the past four presidential elections. The district is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, and President Biden narrowly edged out former President Trump in 2020, 49.7 percent to 49.1 percent. Party leaders are flooding the district, with recent visits from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

PA-08 (Toss-Up): Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) is the only House Democrat to successfully win re-election four times in a district Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. He hopes to tap into the same playbook this November, this time against Republican candidate Rob Bresnahan, a wealthy construction company CEO and first-time candidate for public office. Cartwright will lean on his personal brand and appeal to Independent and Republican voters as he defends this Republican-leaning district.

PA-10 (Toss-Up): Former House Freedom Caucus Chairman and six-term incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) faces longtime television anchor Janelle Stelson, his most formidable challenger in recent years. Stelson is outraising Perry, bringing in $2.7 million in the third quarter. While recent internal polling from the Stelson campaign has her within the margin of error, some national Republicans were initially not convinced the race would be competitive. They largely sat out of the race, focusing their dollars on other competitive races in the Commonwealth. With the district’s recent shift from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” outside Republican investment is pouring into the district. House Freedom Fund, the PAC associated with the House Freedom Caucus, is running an ad tying Stelson to Democratic megadonor George Soros.

VA-07 (Toss-Up): Republican Army Special Forces combat veteran Derrick Anderson and Democratic retired Army lieutenant colonel Eugene Vindman are locked in a neck-and-neck race to fill the seat vacated by gubernatorial candidate Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). Vindman, a first-time candidate known for his role in the Trump impeachment hearings, lacks some of the crucial inroads that Spanberger built with Independent and Republican voters in this purple district. Cook Political Report recently shifted the rating from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” The presidential race will likely impact the outcome of this congressional contest, and Democrats hope a strong showing by Harris will help secure a Vindman victory.

WA-03 (Toss-Up): Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) is in a tight rematch against Trump-aligned Republican Joe Kent. While Gluesenkamp Perez led Kent 46 to 39 percent in their open, top-two primary, she must secure a significant portion of Republican voters as she did in 2022. Polling from early October shows Kent and Gluesenkamp Perez in a dead heat with 46 percent each and shows Trump leading Harris by a 50 to 45 percent margin. In 2020, Trump won the district by approximately four points.

WA-04 (Solid Republican): Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), a five-term incumbent, faces a challenge from fellow Republican and former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. Newhouse drew criticism from Trump-aligned Republicans like Sessler for his vote to impeach Trump in the wake of January 6. However, Newhouse’s moderate appeal might benefit him in the general election, especially with Democrats and Independents who have only a more conservative option in Sessler.

Party Committee Updates/Fundraising

The DCCC raised $30.3 million in September, for a total of $70.1 million in the third quarter and $280.9 million this cycle. The NRCC raised $18 million in September and took out a $15 million line of credit. The two committees head into the final days of the campaign neck and neck in cash-on-hand; the DCCC has $49.9 million cash on hand and no debt compared to the NRCC’s $48.8 million.

The House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, raised $99 million in the third quarter compared to the $81.4 million by the Republican super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund. As of October 1, each PAC raised roughly $210 million this cycle.

Analysis of third-quarter Federal Election Commission filings shows Democratic candidates in competitive races continue to outraise their Republican opponents. In the 43 races Cook Political Report rates as Toss-Up, Lean Democrat, or Lean Republican, Democrats raised an average of nearly $2 million in the third quarter, compared to just under $800,000 for the Republican candidates. Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) were the only two Republicans in competitive districts to outraise their Democratic opponents in the third quarter. In the 43 districts, 13 Republicans currently have more cash on hand, while 30 Democrats have the cash advantage.

Governor

Eight of the 11 governors’ mansions up for grabs this cycle will welcome new faces as term-limited or retiring governors are replaced. While many of these races were all but decided in primary elections earlier this year, there are four competitive states: Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington. Current U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) is favored to retain power for the GOP in Indiana. New Hampshire remains the best opportunity for party turnover, with former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) battling former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) to maintain Republican control in a Toss-Up race. Democrats, meanwhile, are defending competitive seats in North Carolina and Washington state.

Race Spotlights

Indiana (Likely Republican): Earlier this month, Cook Political Report shifted the race between frontrunner Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) and former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The rating changes cited McCormick’s recent party affiliation change from Republican to Democrat as appealing to moderate voters. Libertarian nominee Donald Rainwater is polling at nearly 6 percent, which could pull support from Braun’s base. Additionally, Braun drew criticism for running an attack ad featuring an AI-generated image of McCormick without proper disclosure. The DGA and RGA are pouring money into this race, contributing $600,000 and $1 million respectively. Despite all the buzz, this race is a longshot for Democrats. Republicans have held the governorship for 20 years, and Braun has Trump’s endorsement in a state that Trump won by 15 points in 2020.

New Hampshire (Toss-Up): Recent polls show former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) with a narrow one-point lead over former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig (D) in the race to replace retiring Governor Chris Sununu (R). Republicans are heavily outspending Democrats on TV ads in this race, with Ayotte’s campaign and the New Hampshire GOP spending a combined $10.1 million to date compared to Craig and the state Democrats’ combined $4.4 million. In TV ads and the second debate, the candidates continued to attack each other’s records, with Ayotte spotlighting crime and proposed tax increases during Craig’s mayoral tenure. Meanwhile, Craig focusing on Ayotte’s record on abortion and, more recently, her position as a board member of private equity real estate investment firm Blackstone amid rising housing costs in the state.

Washington (Likely Democrat): Polling since the August primary shows state Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) with a comfortable 16-point lead over former Rep. Dave Reichert (R) in the race to replace retiring Governor Jay Inslee (D). While the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has yet to contribute to this race, Ferguson and aligned Democratic groups — including the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) — spent over $5 million in the past few months on TV ads, nearly as much as Reichert’s campaign raised throughout the cycle. Democratic ads attacked Reichert’s record on abortion, a top three issue among Washington voters. Reichert’s campaign is focused on crime, highlighting his background as a county sheriff and accusations of the state’s increased crime rates compared to pre-pandemic levels under Ferguson’s tenure. Republicans hope ballot measures to rollback a handful of climate, tax, and health policies enacted by the Democratic-controlled Washington legislature will help boost turnout among conservative voters in a state where Trump lost to Biden by nearly 20 points.

North Carolina (Likely Democrat): Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is leading Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) by double digits after a bombshell CNN report alleged that Robinson made explicit racial and sexual posts on a pornography message board. Robinson denied the claims and sued CNN for slander. However, the scandal is impacting other contests on the ticket, with a Democratic lieutenant governor candidate running an ad joking about cleaning up Robinson’s office and Trump declining to comment on whether he would still urge voters to support Robinson after formally endorsing him in March. Robinson and Stein are also working to get out the vote in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

Election at a Glance

Presidential: With less than a month until Election Day, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains tight. Although Harris holds a slight polling lead in the national polling average, the seven battleground states that will decide the election are all within the margin of error and are toss-ups.

Senate: Despite leading in most battleground races, it will likely be impossible for Democrats to hold onto their majority if Republicans flip Montana. Polls show a growing lead for Tim Sheehy (R) over Sen. Jon Tester (D), and the race rating shifted to Lean Republican.

House: Control of the House could go either way. The path to victory will depend on the outcome of a couple dozen competitive seats across the country. Republicans are defending 17 districts that President Biden won in 2020, and Democrats are defending 13 districts that Trump carried four years ago.

Governors: Recent rating changes have Democrats hopeful they can hold onto the governors’ seats they are defending this cycle. New Hampshire remains the most competitive gubernatorial race in the country and the best opportunity for a party flip, where the race between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) to replace retiring Governor Chris Sununu (R) is rated a Toss-Up.

Presidential

With early voting underway in 15 states, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will spend the final sprint of the campaign in the battleground states. In total, they have hosted 20 rallies across four states over the past week. With less than one month to go before Election Day, Harris holds a two-point advantage in national polls, but all eight battleground states remain Toss-Ups. Trump and Harris are tied in recent polls, with the candidates separated by two percentage points or less, within the margin of error. Polls in most of the key battleground states did not shift significantly in the weeks following the September 10 presidential debate.
 
While polling shows that voters still favor Trump on economic issues, Harris is showing increasing strength on this top priority issue. In a late August poll, 46 percent of voters said they trust Harris’ ability to manage economic issues, the same share as those who trust Trump. Further, while President Joe Biden polled 20 points behind Trump at the beginning of the year on “dealing with the economy,” Harris is now only trailing by single digits in recent polling. This may reflect the Vice President’s increased focus on concrete economic policy objectives. Her campaign recently released an economic plan and a report on Trump’s health policy proposals. Her economic agenda calls for tax credits for home buyers and expanding the childcare tax credit, tax relief to incentivize domestic manufacturing, and raising corporate taxes to offset the cost of her plan. Harris’ health care report claims Trump’s health proposals would increase insurance and prescription drug costs. Trump countered by calling for the deportation of immigrants to reduce housing demand, boosting domestic energy production, enacting tariffs to incentivize domestic jobs, and reversing the deduction cap on state and local taxes (SALT) passed under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Neither candidate will benefit from the support of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters who announced they will not make an endorsement in the Presidential election. This is the first time since 1996 that the powerful union has not backed the Democratic candidate and comes after an internal survey showed nearly 60 percent of their members supporting Trump.

A Midwest Nice Debate

On October 1, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance faced off in the first and only vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election, hosted by CBS News in New York City. The candidates were relatively muted in their criticism of each other, avoiding the personal attacks they frequently employ on the campaign trail. Instead, they focused on policy differences in a debate style reminiscent of the pre-Trump era. Both candidates emphasized their Midwestern roots and launched their rhetorical barbs by first acknowledging areas of agreement.

The candidates’ sharpest disagreement came when Vance responded to a question about January 6 and claimed that censorship poses a greater threat to democracy instead of answering the question of whether Trump lost the 2020 election. Walz called this a “damning non-answer,” which the campaign immediately cut into an ad juxtaposing the exchange against footage of the assault on the Capitol.
 
At the start of the debate, Walz appeared nervous and less polished than Vance. Walz’s most challenging moment on the stage may have come when he attempted to clarify claims that he was in Hong Kong in May 1989, ahead of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Press reports contradicted Walz’s timeline based on news clips from the time that indicated he left for China in August. Walz said, “I’ve not been perfect, and I’m a knucklehead at times … I got there that summer and misspoke on this.”
 
Initial reactions from swing voters after the debate suggested that Vance outperformed Walz. Several snap polls of viewers discovered favorability jumps for both candidates and found that a very slight majority believed Vance won the debate. Independent voters were less likely to tune in, and it is unlikely the debate will significantly impact the race.

In Polls We Trust?

After polling misses in back-to-back presidential elections, both sides expressed considerable skepticism about whether polling should be trusted in 2024. In both 2020 and 2016, Trump exceeded polling expectations. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried small to moderate leads in key battleground state polls that Trump ultimately won. In 2020, swing states where Biden polled over five percentage points ahead were decided by very narrow margins. Harris has narrower leads in swing states than Biden had at the same time in 2020, suggesting that Democrats may face a more challenging path to victory in 2024.

Electoral Math

Tight margins in every battleground state mean the winning candidate will need to carry at least three to four of the seven battleground states to secure the election. Harris faces a difficult path to victory if she loses Pennsylvania. A loss in Pennsylvania for Harris, which Biden won by only 80,000 votes, means she must win Georgia or North Carolina, two states that Democrats carried only once each since the turn of the century. In both North Carolina (last won by Obama in 2008) and Georgia (won by Biden in 2020), Trump currently has a slight advantage within the margin of error in recent polls. Losing Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina would lose either candidate the election.

Harris and Trump are taking different approaches to spending ad dollars in the battleground states to capture voters’ attention. Between March 12 and September 3, the Trump campaign and Trump-aligned super PACs invested 36 percent of their ad dollars in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the Biden and Harris campaigns and their aligned super PACs only spent 21 percent. Republicans also invested more heavily in Georgia, where they allocated 19 percent of their ad budget compared to Democrats’ 11 percent. In contrast, Democrats spent significantly more of their budget in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Overall, Democrats are outspending Republicans in every swing state. However, fewer viewers are tuning in to the campaign compared to four years ago. About 30 percent of voters polled never heard anything about the candidates’ convention speeches and battleground state ads are only reaching about half of swing voters.

Demographic Deciders

The gender gap grew significantly in recent presidential elections, and current polling predicts it could be larger than ever in 2024. If polling trends persist and women continue to vote at higher rates than men, Trump’s performance with women could become a deciding factor on Election Day. Since 1980, women have consistently turned out to vote in higher numbers than men and have preferred the Democratic candidate. In 2020, 68.4 percent of women reported voting, compared to 65 percent of men. Biden held a 12-point advantage among women voters over Trump in 2020, a slight increase from the 11-point gender gap in 2016. Harris gained significant support from women compared to Biden, with recent polling showing her with an 18-point advantage among women voters over Trump.

Despite Trump’s recent claim that his Administration “will be great for women and their reproductive rights,” his role in appointing the Supreme Court justices that voted to overturn Roe v. Wade remains a focus of Harris’ message. Vance’s past comments about “childless cat ladies” also hurt the Trump campaign’s appeal to women. Trump is relying on surrogates like former Democrat Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (I-HI), Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to reverse this trend while downplaying concerns about abortion access and promising economic prosperity for women. Meanwhile, Harris could benefit from abortion ballot measures in 10 key states, including battleground states Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, recent polls show 58 percent support the ballot measure. In Nevada, 75 percent of voters favor establishing the right to an abortion in their state constitution.

Meanwhile, Harris, while leading Trump with younger voters by 12 points, is still far behind Biden’s 21 point margin with the same group in 2020. Young voters’ strong feelings about the country’s role in the war in Gaza could be contributing to the tighter margin this cycle with the Uncommitted National Movement, a pro-Palestinian grassroots protest campaign, announcing in September it would not endorse Harris while discouraging supporters from voting for Trump or third-party candidates. During the primaries, over 650,000 Democrats voted “uncommitted,” although that was before Harris moved to the top of the ticket. If these voters stay home on Election Day, it could cost Harris the election, just as low base voter turnout in 2016 harmed Hillary Clinton. Trump allies support ballot access for third-party candidates, expecting that these candidates could tap into some younger and more liberal voters’ concerns about Harris and the Democratic Party.

The Numbers Game

The Harris campaign announced it raised $190 million in August, spent $174 million, and ended the month with $235 million on hand. In comparison, the Trump campaign announced it raised $160 million in September and entered October with $283 million on hand. The Harris campaign has not announced its September fundraising numbers. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) also outraised the Republican National Committee (RNC) in August by $28 million, although the RNC ended the month with $29 million more in cash on hand. This does not account for large contributions to super PACs, which report fundraising numbers quarterly rather than monthly. Republican leaders are voicing concerns about their cash disadvantage, though they also lagged behind Democratic fundraising in 2020 and 2016, with different results at the top of the ticket.

Senate

Despite a tough election map that requires Senate Democrats to defend the most competitive races this cycle, Democrats continue to lead in most battleground state polling. Montana is the critical exception. If Republicans can oust third-term Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), barring surprises in newly tightening races, Democrats will lose the Senate majority. However, Democrats are shifting resources to unexpectedly close races in Texas and Florida — longshots that could save their majority. Additionally, Republican Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) faces a surging, yet still unlikely threat from an independent challenger. If Democrats were to lose only in West Virginia and Montana and flip one GOP seat, then the Senate would result in a 50–50 tie, and the majority would be determined by whichever party wins the presidency.

Fundraising

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) transferred four million dollars from his campaign to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) to cut into the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) fundraising advantage. Thune’s transfer marks the largest ever from a Senate Republican and aims to boost his reputation amid a three-way race between himself, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as the Senate Republican Leader. Cornyn has proven to be a fundraising stalwart this election cycle, reportedly raising over $23 million compared to Thune’s $19 million as of September. Despite Thune’s donation, Senate Democrats continue to hold the fundraising advantage thanks to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ transfer of $10 million to the DSCC from her campaign. Entering September, the DSCC reported over $46 million on hand, while the NRSC reported over $43 million.

Race Spotlights

Arizona (Lean Democrat): Both Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and former news anchor Kari Lake (R) are fighting to gain the support of voters across the aisle as November approaches. Gallego maintains a steady edge over Lake, leading in over 92 percent of the polls published by FiveThirtyEight. In a recent effort to attract Democratic voters, Lake launched a “Democrats for Lake” campaign in August, shortly after several high-ranking Republican officials in the state endorsed Democrats. Republican Mesa Mayor John Giles stood alongside former Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) staff as they publicly endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and Gallego. Giles stated, “The time has come for us, as Arizona Republicans, to admit the obvious, and to start saying the quiet part out loud, which is that our party’s nominee is not qualified for office.” After the endorsement, Gallego’s list of prominent Republican supporters continues to grow. During Lake’s run for Arizona governor in 2022, she lost the election because she could not attract the support of moderate Republicans, and a similar story is unfolding this election cycle. However, the Lake campaign may benefit from Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket: he maintains a one-point lead in Arizona in recent polls.

Maryland (Likely Democrat): Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) is ahead in recent polls with an 11-point lead over former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who has held the seat since 2007. Hogan hopes to leverage his popularity as the state’s moderate former governor to become the first Republican senator from Maryland in nearly 45 years. In an appeal to voters, he recently declared that he would codify Roe v. Wade into law, breaking with other Republican candidates on the abortion issue. In response, Alsobrooks warned that Hogan cannot be trusted to be a pro-choice senator, with ads pinpointing his veto on a measure to expand abortion access during his tenure as governor. Alsobrooks needs to overcome low name recognition and reports that she improperly claimed tax breaks. Conversely, Hogan’s rocky relationship with Trump — Hogan recently declared he won’t vote for Trump despite Trump’s endorsement — may turn off conservative voters. Alsobrooks and Hogan will debate for the first — and likely only — time this Thursday.

Michigan (Toss-Up): Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) by an average of nearly five points in recent polling as she seeks to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), who has held the seat since 2001. Slotkin aims to keep the seat blue in the swing state that includes a large liberal bloc who voted “uncommitted” in February’s presidential primary. As a former CIA analyst and Department of Defense official, Slotkin’s record on foreign affairs may be a concern for some Michigan voters who voted uncommitted in opposition to the Biden-Harris Administration’s handling of the war in Gaza. Yet, Slotkin has a track record of success in hotly contested elections, previously winning re-election three times in a swing district in the House of Representatives. After yesterday’s Grand Rapids debate, Slotkin and Rogers will participate in the final debate of the race on October 14 in Detroit.

Montana (Lean Republican): Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) numbers are declining in recent polling as he works to defend his seat against GOP candidate and ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R). The Republican’s lead continues to widen since the debates in June and September. Sheehy’s “Send in the SEAL” campaign includes attacks on Tester’s record on hot-button issues such as abortion, the U.S. southern border, crime, and the economy. In response, Tester is running on a more moderate platform, promising to protect and preserve Montanan values while linking the state’s current problems to Sheehy and the millionaires who have recently moved to Montana. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both shifted the race from Toss-Up to Lean/Tilt Republican. A win for Sheehy would virtually guarantee the GOP at least 50 seats in the next Congress. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both shifted the race from Toss-Up to Lean/Tilt Republican.

Nebraska (Likely Republican): Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) is facing a tougher-than-expected challenge in her race for a third term in a deep red state. Independent challenger Dan Osborn is building momentum from Democratic and Independent voters for an unlikely upset. Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” after several recent polls showed a statistical tie. A navy veteran and union leader, Osborn’s unorthodox pro-union, pro-gun, pro-choice approach appears to be resonating among a broad range of voters. A recent SurveyUSA poll showed Osborn with 18 percent support among Republicans in the state. The same poll also showed him winning independent voters by 17 percent. Senate Republicans acknowledged the threat, and the NRSC recently entered the fray with a $172,000 TV ad buy to defend Fischer. Even with the recent polling, an upset remains unlikely. Fischer has won both of her previous elections by double-digits, and former President Trump had a 16-point lead in the SurveyUSA poll. Interestingly, if Osborn were to upset Fischer, it is unclear with which party he would caucus. Osborn has conducted a series of town halls across the state, as Fischer declined to participate in any debates ahead of the general election.

Nevada (Lean Democrat): Recent polling shows incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) increasing her lead to ten points over Army veteran Sam Brown (R). Rosen is hyper-focused on reproductive rights as Nevada voters consider a November ballot question to enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution. In a recent campaign ad, Rosen targeted Brown’s stance on abortion and reproductive rights. The video, “Caught on Tape,” highlights several anti-abortion statements Brown made previously, many of which contradict his current campaign promise to not support a national abortion ban. Abortion is sure to be a key issue in the October 17 Nevada Senate debate.

Ohio (Toss-Up): Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno (R) appears to be chipping away at incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) narrow lead in a state that voted Republican in the last two presidential elections. Already the most expensive race this cycle, both candidates wasted no time making it one of the most contentious. After handily winning his primary, Moreno referred to Brown as an “old communist” and repeatedly attacked the incumbent over his 50-year career in public office and for supporting Harris’ “radical” policies. In response, Brown accused Moreno of running for personal gain and highlighting a lawsuit filed against him nearly a decade ago alleging theft of overtime wages from employees at one of his car dealerships. It is unclear if the two will debate before the election.

Pennsylvania (Lean Democrat): Seeking a third consecutive term, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) currently leads his challenger, Dave McCormick (R), by an average of 4.6 points in recent polls. The race is centered on the economy with Casey’s pledge to fight “greedflation” at the Democratic National Convention in August. A key focus of Casey’s campaign is painting McCormick as out of touch with everyday Pennsylvanians, including accusing McCormick of putting corporations first while highlighting his deep pockets and spending. In response, McCormick recently launched his “Price of Poor Leadership” tour, offering examples of Pennsylvanians living paycheck-to-paycheck and struggling with high costs. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, hopes the tour can counter Casey’s narratives about the economy and rally blue-collar voters in the Keystone State. The candidates echoed these talking points while accusing each other of lying on the campaign trail during last week’s heated debate in Harrisburg. Their next debate will be held in Philadelphia on October 15, with a potential third debate in Pittsburgh yet to be confirmed.

Wisconsin (Toss-Up): Recent polling projects a tight race in the presidential and Senate contests in Wisconsin, with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections recently shifting the Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up. Harris leads Trump by a statistically insignificant 0.7 percentage points, while incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has a 4.2-point lead over GOP challenger Eric Hovde. In both races, Democrats continue to focus on abortion. Harris recently visited Madison, WI, to underscore her support for youth voter turnout and abortion rights, and Baldwin released a new ad criticizing Hovde’s stance on the issue. Hovde is avoiding abortion messaging, instead echoing Trump’s focus the U.S. border and illegal immigration. At a recent visit to the state, Trump called out a violent crime committed by a Venezuelan gang member. Hovde and Baldwin are set to debate on October 18. Meanwhile, Baldwin secured an endorsement from the state’s largest farm organization, the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation. This is the first time in two decades that the group has endorsed a Democrat for a statewide race.

House

Conventional wisdom suggests that the outcome of the presidential election will likely determine who controls the House in January 2025. While Democrats enjoy recent momentum, the contest for the House remains incredibly close. Both parties’ path to victory will depend on a few dozen of the 435 total seats in the chamber.

Among the 42 districts rated Toss-Up or Lean by Cook Political Report, 14 races are in major battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), 18 feature freshmen seeking to return for a second term, 19 represent “crossover” districts where voters backed one party for the House but the other party for president in 2020, and Cook Political Report recently shifted two races to more competitive ratings.

Party Committee Updates/Fundraising

House Democrats continue to expand their financial advantage over Republicans, in part due to the Harris campaign’s fundraising boost for down-ballot races. Harris also transferred $10 million directly to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), while Trump has yet to contribute to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
 
The NRCC raised $9.7 million in August, $12.6 million less than DCCC’s $22.3 million for the same month. To help fill the gap, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is sending $4 million for a total of $14 million from his super PAC to support House races.
 
House Democrats head into the final weeks of the campaign cycle with a little over $87.3 million cash on hand, over $16 million more than the NRCC’s $70.7 million on hand.

Race Spotlights

AZ-01 (Toss-Up): Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) faces former Democratic state representative Amish Shah in the general election for this Scottsdale-based district. Schweikert, a seven-term incumbent, won by just over 3,200 votes in 2022. Under the district’s current boundaries, Biden won the district by 1.5 percent in 2020, making it one of the most competitive seats in the country. Shah, an emergency room doctor for 20 years before entering politics, won three state house elections between 2018 and 2022 in the district. Whether Schweikert can hold on to the seat largely depends on his ability to outperform the top of the ticket, with competitive presidential and Senate races in the state.

AZ-06 (Toss-Up): Kirsten Engel, a former Democratic state legislator, is back for a rematch against first-term incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) in Arizona’s Sixth District. While Ciscomani, a Mexican immigrant, represents a more moderate faction of the House Republican Caucus, Engel is tying Ciscomani to politically polarizing issues, particularly reproductive rights. Ciscomani, who beat Engel by just over 5,000 votes in 2022, is campaigning on the economy and border security. Recent polling shows the race to be a statistical dead heat.

CA-41 (Toss-Up): Rep. Ken Calvert (R), who has served since 1993, will face Democrat Will Rollins (D) in a rematch of their competitive 2022 race. Recent redistricting made the 41st District more competitive, allowing first-time candidate Rollins to come within five points of Calvert in 2022. Rollins, a former federal counterterrorism prosecutor, attracted national attention and significant fundraising hauls giving Democrats a chance to unseat a longtime incumbent and appropriations cardinal.

CO-08 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) faces Republican state representative Gabe Evans in a highly competitive race. After narrowly winning the district in 2022 by about 1,600 votes, Caraveo fashions herself as a moderate House Democrat willing to work across the aisle. She holds a significant fundraising advantage, with $3.5 million in cash on hand compared to Evans’ $533,000. Outside groups are also spending heavily. GOP PACs reserved $8 million in television time to support Evans, while Democratic PACs spent $6.2 million for Caraveo.

IA-01 (Toss-Up): Second-term Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) faces a rematch against Democratic candidate Christina Bohannan in November. While Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan in 2022 by more than 20,000 votes, this cycle’s race appears more competitive. Miller-Meeks is campaigning on her legislative record and her connection with rural voters. Bohannan’s messaging focuses largely on reproductive rights. Recent polls show the race tightening, with Bohannan up 49 percent to Miller-Meeks’ 46 percent. Cook Political Report recently shifted the seat from “Likely” to “Lean” Republican, prompting national attention and additional spending in the district.

ME-02 (Toss-Up): Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is one of only five Democrats representing a district that voted for Trump in 2020. He will face off against Republican state representative Austin Theriault. House Republicans view this rural district as a prime flip opportunity. Golden, known for his bipartisan approach and willingness to vote with Republicans, has a significant financial advantage: he raised $4.8 million compared to Theriault’s $1.7 million. Despite this, recent polling shows Theriault leading at 47 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent still undecided.

NE-02 (Toss-Up): Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) is facing a rematch with Democratic state senator Tony Vargas. Bacon narrowly won in 2022, and polling suggests another tight contest this November. An August poll showed Vargas leading Bacon 46 percent to 40 percent, and Cook Political Report recently moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. This Omaha-area battleground district, which voted for Joe Biden by over six points in 2020, draws national attention due to its single electoral college vote that could prove decisive in the presidential election.

NJ-07 (Lean Republican): Freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), the son of former GOP Governor Tom Kean, faces Democratic challenger Sue Altman in the state’s only competitive race this cycle. New Jersey’s Seventh District, known for its high levels of education and affluence, voted for Biden by four points in 2020. Biden’s success gave former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) a boost over Kean in 2020, but Malinowski lost the rematch in 2022. Sue Altman’s progressive background could hurt her chances to win over moderate voters in the district.

NY-17 (Toss-Up): Despite running in a district that Biden won by 10 points in 2020, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) continues to lead in the polls against his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY). Lawler has effectively branded himself as a moderate and appears on cable television frequently. Jones previously ran as a progressive and lost a primary run in the Manhattan-based 10th District in 2022 after redistricting put him in a Member-on-Member primary. Now, Jones is running to the center to appeal to his old district’s moderate and independent voters. Both candidates raised significant funds, and Jones recently launched his first TV spot focused on protecting access to affordable health care. Lawler has recently come under fire after images emerged of him as a twenty-year-old appearing in blackface. Lawler confirmed the authenticity of the photo but said that blackface was the “furthest thing” from his mind and apologized.

NY-22 (Lean Democrat): Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY) faces a tough re-election fight in New York’s 22nd District after redistricting this year shifted the district in favor of Democrats. Under the new boundaries, Biden would have won the Syracuse and Utica-based district by 11 points in 2020. Williams is up against Democratic state senator John Mannion, a former public school teacher who flipped his state senate seat blue in 2020. Both parties view the race as a top priority — the DCCC and House Majority PAC reserved more than $3.5 million for ads. The NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund committed more than $3 million. The seat is one of the top pick-up opportunities for Democrats in New York.

OH-13 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) seeks re-election in this competitive district, which includes Akron and parts of Northeast Ohio. While Democrats carried the district since 1977, it became more competitive in recent cycles, especially after redistricting. Sykes is running against Republican Kevin Coughlin, a former state senator. A recent NRCC poll shows Sykes leading 44 percent to 40 percent, with 14 percent of voters undecided. As of July, Sykes has a significant fundraising advantage, with $2.37 million cash on hand compared to Coughlin’s $389,000.

OR-05 (Toss-Up): After narrowly flipping the district in 2022, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) aims to keep the seat red this November in a tight race against Democratic state representative Janelle Bynum. Chavez-DeRemer previously defeated progressive candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who unseated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) in the Democratic primary. Bynum, a more moderate Democrat, hopes to attract more of the independent voters who make up about 40 percent of the electorate. Bynum also previously defeated Chavez-DeRemer in races for the Oregon state legislature. The race remains highly competitive, with recent polls showing Bynum leading by just one point, well within the margin of error, 43 to 42 percent.

PA-07 (Toss-Up): Democratic incumbent Rep. Susan Wild faces state representative Ryan Mackenzie (R) in one of Pennsylvania’s most competitive races this cycle. A centrist, Wild is campaigning on her legislative achievements and reproductive rights, while Mackenzie seeks to link Wild to unpopular issues like inflation and border security. Although Wild holds a significant fundraising advantage, polls show the race remains extremely close.

PA-08 (Toss-Up): Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) faces a competitive re-election campaign against Rob Bresnahan Jr., the owner of an electrical contracting company and community philanthropist. Cartwright is one of the few remaining Democratic incumbents running in a district that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. The candidates recently agreed to participate in one debate in October.

WA-03 (Toss-Up): After a surprise victory in 2022, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) faces a rematch against Trump-aligned Republican Joe Kent. The two candidates have taken divergent approaches to appeal to the district’s rural electorate. Gluesenkamp Perez is positioning herself as a moderate, and Kent is focusing on more conservative issues. Although Gluesenkamp Perez led Kent 46 percent to 39 percent in the open, top-two primary, she must now sway a significant portion of the voters who supported the third-place candidate who recently endorsed Kent. July polling showed Kent leading by one point in the general election. Kent got a boost from Speaker Mike Johnson when he visited the district in August.

WI-03 (Leans Republican): Once a Democratic stronghold, Wisconsin’s Third District shifted right in recent years. After longtime Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) retired in 2022, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) flipped the seat with a modest three-point victory over his Democratic opponent. Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner in the region, recently won the Democratic nomination to challenge Van Orden this November. In this rural, working-class district, where Trump remains the favorite, Cooke needs to outperform the top of the ticket to win.

Governors

Of the 11 gubernatorial races this cycle, only three — New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington — are considered competitive. Democrats remain cautiously optimistic about retaining all the seats they are defending this cycle, particularly after Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson’s (D) strong performance in the August all-party primary and a scandal rocked North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s (R) campaign, prompting analysts to shift both race ratings to Likely Democratic. Democrats also have renewed hope of a longshot seat flip in Indiana, with new polling showing Jennifer McCormick (D) trailing U.S. Senator Mike Braun (R) by only seven points. Inside Elections recently shifted the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Race Spotlights

New Hampshire (Toss-Up): The early general election polls of this race show former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig (D) and former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) neck-and-neck, with Ayotte up three points in a Saint Anselm College poll and Craig up one point in a University of New Hampshire poll. In response to Craig’s continued criticism of Ayotte’s record on abortion during the first general election debate, Ayotte promised that she would veto any bills increasing restrictions if elected. Ayotte’s campaign criticized Craig for raising taxes and being soft on crime as Manchester mayor. Ayotte is also aligning her campaign with popular retiring Governor Chris Sununu (R), noting that she will “follow the Sununu path.” Education is a key issue in this race, with the candidates clashing on school vouchers, parental rights, and transgender student-athletes.

North Carolina (Likely Democrat): One of the most competitive races of this cycle shifted from Toss-Up to Likely Democrat after CNN reported Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson made a series of inflammatory and graphic remarks on a pornography website over a decade ago. Robinson denies the claims and threatened to sue CNN. Yet, many national Republican groups, including the Republican Governors Association, pulled financial support from Robinson, who already lagged behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in fundraising. New York Times/Siena College polling after the scandal broke has Stein up 10 points. Although Republicans worked to distance themselves from Robinson, strategists are concerned about the impact the gubernatorial race could have up and down the ticket. For example, Harris’ campaign put out an ad tying Trump to Robinson.

Washington (Likely Democrat): In the weeks since Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) led the 28-candidate all-party primary, beating former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R) by 17 points, Ferguson maintains a lead over Reichert in general election polls. Both candidates point to their opponent’s record in public service to define the race for voters. With public safety top of mind in this race, Reichert positioned himself as the outsider candidate, blaming Ferguson for the state’s crime and drug problems during his tenure as attorney general. Meanwhile, in the second gubernatorial debate, Ferguson called out Reichert’s record and past comments on abortion, diversity, equity, and inclusion, and climate to counter Reichert’s positioning as a more moderate candidate.

Election at a Glance

Presidential: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump came out of their respective conventions with the united and enthusiastic support of their party’s base. They now face the difficult task of quickly assembling the coalition of support they will need to win November’s general election. In their first debate, Harris sought to define herself to the nation while frustrating and pushing Trump off message. Trump, on the other hand, sought to tie Harris to President Joe Biden on issues from immigration to foreign affairs to the economy. Both are looking to win over Independent voters in battleground states that will ultimately decide the election.

Senate: The 2024 Senate map continues to heavily favor Republicans. The biggest news is that Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) polling lead remains within the margin of error against Bernie Moreno (R) in Ohio and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is starting to lose ground to Tim Sheehy (R) in Montana.

House: With the congressional primary season over, both Republicans and Democrats are grappling with the impacts of the change at the top of the ticket. House Democrats feel increasingly optimistic about their chances of taking the majority with Harris as their standard bearer while Republican candidates retool their messaging after years of campaigning against President Biden.

Governors: With primary season over and most gubernatorial races this year taking place in Solid Democratic and Solid Republican states, many races are all but decided. New Hampshire’s recent primary set the stage for one of the few competitive races this fall.

Presidential

After a historically tumultuous summer including two assassination attempts on former President Trump, President Biden stepping down from the top of the Democratic ticket, and Democrats avoiding a nomination fight by coalescing around Vice President Harris, Election Day is less than two months away and early voting is underway in several states. While polls consistently predicted a very close election, the race is now tighter than ever. After months of polling trending in Trump’s direction, Harris’ entry only two months ago reshaped the race and altered the electoral map. Cook Political Report now rates seven battleground states as Toss-Ups (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina). Both campaigns will dedicate nearly all their time and resources in the campaign’s final sprint building support in those seven states. Finally, the Federal Reserve took an unprecedented step to cut interest rates just 47 days before Election Day, a move that is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy before voters head to the polls but could improve perceptions of the Biden-Harris Administration’s economic stewardship.

Taking the De-bait

Vice President Harris and former President Trump met for the first time last week, facing off in their first and only scheduled presidential debate. The candidates clashed on the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and foreign policy. Harris spent much of the debate telling the American people she cared about them and baiting Trump into straying off message. Trump attacked Harris for her role as Biden’s “border czar,” the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and for failing to deliver on her campaign agenda as vice president. Throughout the debate, Harris sought to frame the election as “turning the page” on Trump, while Trump focused on tying Harris to Biden and painting the United States as a “failing nation” due to their leadership.

Afterward, Trump and his supporters criticized the moderators for what they viewed as one-sided fact-checking. Trump announced he will not debate Harris again, calling the ABC debate a “rigged deal,” while the Harris campaign stated that she is open to participating in another. In a CNN snap poll, registered voters said that Harris outperformed Trump, 63 percent to 37 percent. The majority, however, said that the debate had no effect on their vote. It is unlikely that the debate will have a significant impact on the outcome of the race, in stark contrast to the Biden-Trump debate in June that led to Biden stepping down from the Democratic ticket.

Ballot Excess

In a move the Trump campaign hopes will help boost his chances with undecided voters, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his third-party presidential campaign last month and endorsed Trump, appearing with the former President at an Arizona rally just hours after his announcement. However, the real impact of Kennedy’s departure on the race remains unclear. After initial concerns about how Kennedy might affect vote margins in key states, particularly among Independent, undecided voters who dislike both major parties, polls now suggest his withdrawal may have little impact on the election results.

Kennedy brought legal challenges to remove his name from battleground ballots. While he lost and will remain on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, the North Carolina Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that required elections officials to reissue ballots without Kennedy’s name. The new ballots delayed transmitting mail-in ballots beyond the state’s 60-day deadline. Trump won Michigan by 0.2 percent and Wisconsin by 0.8 percent in 2016. While Harris currently leads by less than two points in the Real Clear Politics polling averages in both states, Trump is within the margin of error in each poll where he is trailing.

The Independent Voter

Independent and undecided voters in seven battleground states will decide this election. Over the last 11 presidential election cycles, only two presidents — George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012 — won the White House while losing the Independent vote.

Trump’s 2020 defeat can be partly attributed to his decline in support among Independent voters. In 2016, Trump won Independents by one point, and he lost them by nine points in 2020. While Biden received substantial support from Independents in 2020, his favorability with these voters fell as questions about his fitness to remain in office grew. Polling in early July showed that 68 percent of Independents believed Biden was too old to serve in office. Since Biden’s departure, Harris closed that gap as polling now shows Independent voters are nearly evenly split between Trump and Harris nationally.

The number of voters registering as Independents reached a new high over the last two years. Today, 43 percent of voters around the country identify as Independents, compared to 27 percent who identify as Democrats and 27 percent who identify as Republicans. A recent Marquette Law School poll revealed that Independent voters rank the economy as their most important issue by a wide margin, followed by immigration, Medicare/Social Security, and ensuring fair and accurate elections. Notably, 27 percent of Independents responded “don’t know” when asked about the most important issue, compared to four percent of Republicans and seven percent of Democrats. This may indicate that many Independent voters are just starting to tune into the election.

Coalition of the Winning

Building and holding together a coalition of support among various demographics is crucial in close elections when voter turnout plays a pivotal role. While Trump and Harris’ winning coalitions will look very different, they will have one key constituency in common: Independents. Winning the 2024 battleground states will be a balancing act. Both Trump and Harris need to boost turnout among their core supporters while also appealing to Independent and undecided voters.

To win, Trump must recreate his 2016 success with suburban, Independent, and economy-minded voters while maintaining his 2020 gains with Hispanic, Black, and younger voters (e.g., Trump won 38 percent of Hispanic voters, a 10 percent increase from 2016). He also needs to energize and turn out his base. In 2020, 65 percent of rural voters supported Trump, and 85 percent of his supporters were white. His strength with white, non-college-educated, and rural voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania proved critical to his 2016 victory. However, the selection of Walz shows that the Harris campaign aims to chip away at this support in the Rust Belt. Biden’s margin among these voters was vital to his 2020 victory, and recent polling indicates that Harris and Walz might achieve similar levels of support. Meanwhile, Trump is seeking to continue his positive progress among Hispanic voters that could help him win states like Arizona and Nevada.

Harris hopes to expand the coalition that Biden relied on to win in 2020. The increased enthusiasm for her candidacy among key Democratic constituencies, such as young and minority voters, may allow her to do so. Polls from early August show over a 10 percent increase in likelihood to vote among Black, Hispanic, Gen Z, and millennial voters as compared to July polls. This shift could be the key to Harris winning swing states with higher populations of these voters, like Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, where polls show Harris is increasingly competitive as the nominee.

At the same time, Harris must regain the support Biden lost since 2020. A May Cook Political Report survey of swing state voters showed only 85 percent of Biden’s 2020 voters supported him in 2024. Just two months into her candidacy, Harris made significant process in repairing the damage. The same group’s August survey had Harris receiving 91 percent of support from Biden’s 2020 voters. According to recent Wall Street Journal polling, Harris has 81 percent support among Black voters, which is over 10 points better than Biden when he dropped out. However, this support still lags behind the 90 percent support among Black voters that Biden received in the 2020 election. The Trump campaign remains optimistic that they can prevent Harris from closing this delta. The same Wall Street Journal poll indicates that Trump increased his support by 8 points among Black men.

Money Moves

Two days after the Democratic convention ended, the Harris campaign announced it had raised $82 million during the DNC and reached $615 million raised since Harris entered the race, including $361 million in August. The Harris campaign also spent $90 million on an ad campaign targeting swing states over Labor Day weekend and ended August with $404 million in cash on hand. The campaign announced an additional $47 million raised in the 24 hours after her debate with Trump. Additionally, the DNC and the Harris campaign transferred approximately $25 million to down-ballot races. In comparison, the Trump campaign raised $130 million in August and announced it had nearly $300 million in cash on hand at the end of the month.

Senate

The last primaries of the Senate cycle wrapped up this month with Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), John Barrasso (R-WY), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) all easily winning their primaries and heavily favored to win in November. While the 2024 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, Democrats continue to maintain the polling edge in battleground states. August polling shows Senate Democrats outpacing Harris’ support in battleground races while the Republican candidates trail Trump’s levels of support.

Primary Recaps

Florida (Likely Republican): Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) won a crowded Democratic primary and will face incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). Mucarsel-Powell and Scott are both eager to gain the support of the state’s Hispanic voters. One in five eligible voters in Florida is Hispanic. Florida’s recent Republican drift is driven in part by gains made among the state’s Hispanic voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) won the Hispanic vote by 18 points in his 2022 reelection bid after losing the Hispanic vote by 10 points in 2018. Trump also drastically improved his margins among Florida Hispanics between 2016 and 2020. Mucarsel-Powell, a fluent Spanish speaker and the first South American-born immigrant to serve in Congress, hopes to reverse this trend with Spanish-language media appearances and ad spending. Scott, a wealthy former health care executive and Florida transplant, who learned Spanish during his time as governor, has a long history courting the Hispanic vote and is spending millions on ads targeting the Hispanic community in this campaign. Scott, who is seeking a second term after narrowly defeating former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in 2018 by only 10,000 votes, currently leads by 3 percentage points according to most recent polls.

Wisconsin (Lean Democrat): Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), elected to the Senate in 2013, will face banking and real estate executive Eric Hovde (R). Endorsed by Trump, Hovde is new to the world of politics and is lending his campaign millions of his own money to unseat the popular incumbent. Wisconsin, a historically purple state, had several close elections recently. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, and Biden won it in 2020, each by less than a point. Baldwin, however, won her last election by 11 points. She currently leads Hovde by more than five points in recent polling averages, far ahead of Harris, who remains neck-and-neck with Trump in the state. Hovde hopes that another close presidential race in the state will bring him within striking distance of Baldwin in November.

Delaware (Solid Democrat): Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) secured the Democratic nomination and is seeking to replace longtime Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE), who is retiring after nearly 25 years in office. As the frontrunner for the safe Democratic seat, Blunt Rochester raised over $7.8 million. She will face Republican businessman Eric Hansen and Independent anesthesiologist Dr. Michael Katz in November. Hansen is new to politics, while Katz served in the Delaware State Senate as a Democrat from 2009 until 2013.

Spotlights

Montana (Lean Republican): The former Navy Seal and Purple Heart recipient Tim Sheehy (R) challenging incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) currently leads Tester by five points in recent polls. Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Sheehy’s campaign continues to tie Tester to President Biden on issues including inflation, government spending, and immigration. Sheehy also uses Trump’s endorsement to his advantage — the former President won Montana by 21 points in 2016 and 16 points in 2020. In contrast, Tester, who is seeking a fourth term in office, chose not to attend the DNC in August to stay focused on the campaign trail in Montana. Tester stated that he will not endorse Harris to keep the campaign focused on local issues rather than national ones. Since his first election in 2006, Tester’s moderate, grassroots campaign strategy won him several close races in the historically red state.

Ohio (Toss-Up): Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is defending his seat against GOP challenger Bernie Moreno (R) in the most expensive Senate race in the country. Moreno emphasizes his outsider status and embraces Trump while challenging Brown’s record on immigration and the economy. He also aims to capitalize on the momentum of fellow Ohioan Sen. JD Vance’s (R-OH) nomination as Trump’s running mate. Vance won his seat in 2022 due in part to an endorsement by Trump, giving the Trump-endorsed Moreno hopes of repeating Vance’s result this November. Brown chose not to attend the DNC, opting to remain in Ohio and campaign on his record. He currently leads in fundraising, but recent reports that the cryptocurrency industry-backed Fairshake PAC pledged $12 million to aid Moreno’s campaign may help level the playing field on the fundraising front in the short term. Still, Brown remains popular in the state and maintains a lead in polling averages since the primaries in March. He currently leads Moreno by 3.6 points, far ahead of Harris, who trails Trump by 9 points. Brown won his last two elections by an average of roughly six points.

Nevada (Lean Democrat): Cook Political Report recently shifted the Nevada Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) and Trump-endorsed Sam Brown (R) from a Toss Up to Lean Democrat as Brown trails Rosen by 9.5 points. Rosen’s increase in polling closely aligns with Harris’ performance even though the presidential margin is less than 1.2 percent. Although Rosen has the edge in recent polls, Brown emphasized that the race is still “margin of error close.” Nevada Senate races have a history of close calls. In 2016, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won her seat by less than a percent; in 2012, former Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) won by 1.2 percent; former Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was reelected in 1998 by just over 400 votes. However, Rosen’s 2018 race was a more comfortable five-point victory. Rosen’s attacks on Brown focus on his positions on abortion and reproductive care. This election cycle, Nevadans will also vote on a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. While Brown avoided taking a stance on the measure, he recently indicated his opposition in audio from a campaign event. He aligns himself closely with Trump’s position and said he would leave the decision to the states. Meanwhile, Rosen is a staunch supporter of abortion rights and expanding reproductive care, gaining the endorsement of several pro-choice organizations.

Pennsylvania (Lean Democrat): Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is currently polling ahead of Republican David McCormick in a state Biden won by a narrow 1.2-point margin in 2020. Yet Casey faces a challenge against the Trump-endorsed McCormick, one of the leading Republicans in fundraising with over $17 million raised. Boosted by a $30 million purchase in television ads from the conservative-aligned Keystone Renewal PAC and a $24 million ad buy from the Senate Leadership Fund, McCormick continues to heavily criticize Casey and Democrats, particularly on their handling of the U.S.-Mexico border, the economy, and violent crime. Nonetheless, Casey remains a popular figure with $31 million raised. He was early to endorse Harris and spoke at the DNC, where he pledged to combat inflation by prohibiting price gouging. Casey is in a much closer race than his 13-point win in 2018 and 11-point margin in 2012, when he ran ahead of President Barack Obama in the Commonwealth.

Fundraising

With the 2024 Senate election cycle seeing record fundraising numbers, campaigns are spending more on ads. This year, $723 million in campaign ad buys went into just three Senate races: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana. Ohio’s Senate race, a crucial battleground for the Senate majority, already attracted over $310 million in ad spending by Democrats and Republicans combined, making it the most expensive non-presidential race this cycle. Ohio is the only Senate race where Republicans have outspent Democrats (largely due to Ohio having one of the only competitive Senate GOP primaries this year). Senate races in Pennsylvania and Montana follow closely, with roughly $207 million and $205 million spent on air time respectively. Entering August, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported over $59 million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee has the most cash on hand it has ever reported, totaling around $51 million.

House

Congressional primary season is over, with Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin completing their House primaries in late August and early September.

Democrats feel increasingly optimistic about their chances of taking the House majority. Harris’ momentum at the top of the ticket is boosting enthusiasm, fundraising, and volunteering for House Democrats. However, in the 24 toss-up districts, where the House majority will be determined, candidates will attempt to harness the national grassroots enthusiasm for Harris while appealing to swing voters using a hyper-local campaign strategy focusing on issues impacting their districts.

Meanwhile, down-ballot Republican candidates find themselves in a different position than a month ago. In July, House Republicans had momentum, and a clear message focused on President Biden’s record and age. Battleground Republicans are now pivoting to define Harris and tie their Democratic opponents to her record.

Primary Recaps

Arizona — July 30

AZ-03 (Solid Democrat): Former Phoenix city council member Yassamin Ansari narrowly defeated former state lawmaker Raquel Terán for the Democratic nomination for the Third District, which covers West and South Phoenix. The district is currently represented by Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is running for U.S. Senate. After a recount, Ansari was certified as the winner by just 36 votes. She aims to be the first Iranian American Democrat in Congress.

Minnesota — August 13

MN-02 (Lean Democrat): In Minnesota’s most competitive congressional district, Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab won the Republican primary and will face incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) in November. Tayler Rahm, whom the state GOP endorsed, dropped out of the primary race in July to join former President Trump’s election campaign, opening a path for Teirab’s victory. Teirab looks to defeat Craig, who has held the seat since ousting former Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN) in 2018. Many view the district as a bellwether as it splits evenly between Republican and Democrat voter registration and has supported the winning presidential candidate in every race since 2000.

MN-03 (Solid Democrat): Rep. Dean Phillips’s (D) ill-fated primary campaign against President Biden opened his House seat, which will likely be filled by Kelly Morrison, a doctor and state Senator who won the Democratic nomination. She will face Republican Tad Jude in the general election, a judge and former state legislator.

MN-05 (Solid Democrat): Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) defeated her primary challenger Don Samuels, avoiding a third loss for progressive “Squad” members this cycle. Unlike Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), AIPAC did not invest in the race. Omar secured a much larger margin of victory over Samuels compared to 2022, providing a boost to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. In November, Omar will likely sail to victory in this heavily Democratic, Minneapolis-based district.

Wisconsin — August 13

WI-03 (Lean Republican): Small business owner and second-time candidate Rebecca Cooke beat state representative Katrina Shankland and mortgage loan officer Eric Wilson in a competitive Democratic primary. She will face freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) in November. Cooke’s victory was a win for the moderate Blue Dogs, which backed her in the primary. Cooke will face an uphill battle against Van Orden in the Republican-trending district that former Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) represented for 26 years.

WI-08 (Solid Republican): After securing former President Trump’s endorsement, businessman and self-described “political outsider” Tony Wied won a competitive Republican primary to replace former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI). Candidates for WI-08 appeared twice on the ballot due to the timing of Gallagher’s early retirement from Congress last April, triggering a special election on the same day as the regularly scheduled elections. Wied will face Democrat Dr. Kristin Lyerly in November. The winner of the special general election will serve until January 3, 2025, after which the winner of the regular general election will serve a full, two-year term.

Alaska — August 20

AK-AL (Toss-Up): Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) made a strong showing in Alaska’s open primary, finishing with over 50 percent of the vote in the state’s lone congressional district, which Trump won by 10 points in 2020. Peltola won her 2022 race largely due to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting, which may be less of a factor this November. The third-place finisher, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R-AK), and the fourth-place finisher, Matthew Salisbury (R), dropped out of the race, allowing Republicans to coalesce around Nick Begich (R). The grandson of former Democratic Rep. Nick Begich, Sr. will now run a more traditional campaign against Peltola, who remains popular, even in red Alaska. However, Peltola will deal with a second Democrat on the ballot, Eric Hafner, who is currently serving time in federal prison in New York. Hafner came in sixth place (.4% of the vote) during the August primary but qualified for the top four general election ballot after the two Republican departures. Democrats attempted to sue to have Hafner removed, but the Alaska Supreme Court upheld his inclusion on the ballot. After the primary, Cook Political Report shifted its rating in Begich’s favor from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up.

Florida — August 20

FL-01 (Solid Republican): Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) “revenge tour” hit another snag as four-term incumbent firebrand Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) handily defeated Aaron Dimmock, a Navy veteran backed by McCarthy’s super PAC. Of the eight House Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy from the speakership last fall, only one lost re-nomination. Gaetz, who led the charge to oust McCarthy, should easily defeat Democrat Gay Valimont in the general election.

FL-08 (Solid Republican): Former Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos secured victory against nominal opposition in Florida’s Space Coast-based Eighth District. After the surprise retirement of eight-term incumbent Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), Haridopolos consolidated the Republican primary vote, touting his work in the Florida Senate on cutting taxes, balancing the budget, and immigration. He is a heavy favorite against Democrat Sandy Kennedy in November.

FL-09 (Likely Democrat): Real estate developer Thomas Chalifoux secured the Republican nomination over several Puerto Rican candidates, weakening Republicans’ chances of flipping the Ninth District red. Half of the district’s population identifies as Hispanic or Latino and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) specifically targeted the district to gain momentum and shift support among Latino voters in the state. Incumbent Congressman Soto (D-FL) secured reelection in 2022 with 53 percent of the vote, slightly less than his wins in 2020 and 2018, and is on track to win again in November.

FL-13 (Likely Republican): Whitney Fox, the former director of communications and marketing for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, easily defeated several other Democratic opponents to earn the right to face conservative Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) in November. Luna, a member of the House Freedom Caucus and an ally of former President Trump, represents one of only three Florida congressional districts considered competitive.

FL-23 (Solid Democrat): Freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) will face Joe Kaufman, a national security consultant and writer, in the general election for Florida’s 23rd District. The district covers parts of South Florida and has one of the largest Jewish populations of any congressional district. Considered a safely Democratic district last cycle, Moskowitz won by just five percentage points as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) narrowly carried the district in his landslide re-election. Following the primary, Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Democrat to Solid Democrat.

Delaware — September 10

DE-AL (Solid Democrat): State Senator Sarah McBride handily won the Democratic primary for Delaware’s sole congressional district, setting herself up to become the first openly transgender Member of Congress. McBride, who received nearly 80 percent of the primary vote, will face Republican James Whalen III, a retired state police officer and construction company owner, in the general election.

New Hampshire — September 10

NH-01 (Likely Democrat): Russell Prescott, a former state Senator and member of the New Hampshire Executive Council, won a tightly contested battle for the Republican nomination in New Hampshire’s First District. The district swung between Democrats and Republicans for much of the past two decades, but Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) has emerged victorious in the last three general elections.

NH-02 (Likely Democrat): Longtime Rep. Annie Kuster’s (D-NH) decision to retire at the end of this Congress spurred a competitive Democratic primary ultimately won by Maggie Goodlander, a Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Biden-Harris Administration’s Department of Justice and wife of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Goodlander defeated Colin Van Ostern, a former Kuster campaign staffer who received the congresswoman’s endorsement. Goodlander will face Republican activist Lily Tang Williams in the general election.

General Election Spotlights

Looking ahead to November’s general elections, approximately 70 races are currently considered competitive. Below are deeper dives into some of the most competitive toss-up races in the country.

CA-22 (Toss-Up): Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and former state assemblyman Rudy Salas will face off again in a rematch of their 2022 race, where Valadao became one of just two House Republicans to win re-election after voting to impeach President Donald Trump in the aftermath of January 6. During his time in Congress and his previous races, Valadao takes a bipartisan approach, breaking with Trump and House Republicans at times while highlighting his work on local issues in the state’s farm belt. Though President Biden won this district by 13 points in 2020 and Democrats hold a 17-point registration advantage, Valadao’s past performance indicates a close race this November.

CA-45 (Toss-Up): Incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) faces a strong challenge from Democrat Derek Tran, a Vietnamese American lawyer and U.S. Army veteran. Steel, an Asian American two-term congresswoman with deep roots in the Orange County GOP, has built a robust campaign focusing on economic concerns like inflation and taxes. The district has a plurality Asian population and the largest population of people of Vietnamese descent outside of Vietnam. With this electorate, Tran hopes to sway traditional Republican voters by emphasizing his personal story as the son of refugees and his local ties. However, Steel remains a formidable fundraiser and has a strong track record in Vietnamese-heavy areas that traditionally vote Republican. With Democrats holding a slight four-point registration advantage, this race will test whether Tran’s outreach to younger, more progressive voters can break the district’s recent Republican tilt.​

MI-08 (Toss-Up): Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) is retiring after serving five terms in Congress. State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet hopes to keep the seat in Democratic hands as she faces a challenge from former broadcast journalist Paul Junge, the Republican nominee from 2022. Although redistricting made the district more Republican and recent trends favored Republicans, Kildee previously defeated Junge by 10 points by outspending him two to one, opportunistically breaking with Democrats and fashioning his campaign around local community ties.

NC-01 (Toss-Up): North Carolina’s First District, based in the northeastern part of the state, is centered on its rural Black population. However, as the region’s Black population declines, and following the retirement of longtime incumbent Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-NC), the seat grew more favorable to Republicans. Incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) crafted a more moderate voting record, voting with Republicans in Congress more than all but three congressional Democrats. Still, he faces a serious challenge from Republican Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel. In July, the NRCC named Buckhout to their Young Guns list, providing her with more resources than Davis’s 2022 opponent. She is seeking to be the first Republican to hold the seat since 1883.

NY-04 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) and Democrat Laura Gillen are set for a rematch in New York’s Fourth District. D’Esposito won his first term by defeating Gillen in 2022. The district, which spans Nassau County, has a 10-point Democratic registration advantage. D’Esposito is capitalizing on concerns about crime and border security to maintain a lead. Gillen, who is positioning herself as a centrist Democrat, is running on protecting abortion rights and enhancing public safety. Despite the Democratic tilt in registration, D’Esposito’s incumbency and focus on key issues such as inflation and crime are helping him hold a slight edge in his campaign’s internal polling. This race will likely hinge on turnout and whether Gillen’s appeals to moderates resonate enough to overcome D’Esposito’s incumbency advantage.

Party Committee Updates/Fundraising

While Republicans have had a cash disadvantage for the entirety of this election cycle, August provided an opportunity for GOP leaders to make up some ground on Democrats’ impressive fundraising hauls. Speaker Johnson posted more than $4 million for the month, traveling to 21 states and appearing publicly with 70 Members and candidates. Still, Republicans are likely to remain at a disadvantage for the rest of the cycle, with increased Democratic enthusiasm following the nomination of Vice President Harris leading to more money pouring into down-ballot races. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee stated Frontliners — Democratic candidates designated with the toughest races — have an average cash-on-hand of $2.7 million, more than five times that of their Republican counterparts.

Governors

Primary Recaps

New Hampshire (Toss-Up): Republican frontrunner former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte secured her spot in the general election, where she will face Joyce Craig in the race to replace retiring Governor Chris Sununu (R). After declaring victory, Craig committed to ending education voucher programs and reversing the state’s 24-week abortion ban. Throughout the campaign, Ayotte weathered heavy attacks from both Republican and Democratic candidates. Republican candidate Chuck Morse criticized Ayotte for receiving retiring Governor Sununu’s endorsement, emphasizing both politicians’ past lack of support for Trump. Democrats continue to highlight abortion as a key issue in this race, slamming Ayotte for previous Senate votes. In response, Ayotte is attempting to shift the focus to economic issues, immigration, and crime.

Vermont (Solid Republican): After facing no challenger in the Republican primary, incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) will face former Middlebury selectboard member Esther Charlestin (D). With Scott, one of the most popular U.S. governors, likely to win re-election, his campaign is focused on encouraging voters to prevent the return of a Democratic supermajority in the Vermont legislature to provide a more “balanced” moderate government. Scott continues to issue a record number of vetoes during his time in office, many of which the Democratic legislature has overridden. Making Vermont more affordable is a big focus for both parties in the race, with Charlestin campaigning on building new housing and increasing Medicaid eligibility and Scott promising to lower taxes. Notably, Scott does not support Trump and said he will not vote for him, though he has not endorsed Harris.

Delaware (Solid Democrat): New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer (D) beat out Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long and National Wildlife Federation CEO Collin O’Mara, receiving 47 percent of the vote in the September 10 Democratic primary. Despite an endorsement from term-limited incumbent Governor John Carney (D), Hall-Long was plagued by a scandal after a forensic audit found that unreported campaign funds had gone to the candidate and her husband. Meyer will face House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R) in this Solid Democrat general election race.

Appendix

Departing House Democrats

*Running for another office
**Lost primary

Rep. Ruben Gallego* (AZ-03): Ranking Member of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations
Rep. Barbara Lee* (CA-12): Ranking Member of the Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Rep. Anna Eshoo (CA-16): Ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health
Rep. Tony Cardenas (CA-29)
Rep. Adam Schiff* (CA-30)
Rep. Grace Napolitano (CA-31): Ranking Member of the Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment
Rep. Katie Porter* (CA-47)
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester* (DE-AL)
Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-02)
Rep. John Sarbanes (MD-03)
Rep. David Trone* (MD-06)
Rep. Elissa Slotkin* (Ml-07)
Rep. Dan Kildee (Ml-08)
Rep. Dean Phillips* (MN-03): Ranking Member of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Rep. Cori Bush (MO-0 I)**
Del. Gregorio Kilili Camacho Sablan (MP-AL)
Rep. Kathy Manning (NC-06): Vice Ranking Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee
Rep. Wiley Nickel (NC-13)
Rep. Jeff Jackson* (NC-14)
Rep. Ann Kuster (NH-02)
Rep. Andy Kim* (NJ-03): Ranking Member of the Armed Servies Subcommittee on Military Personnel
Rep. Jamaal Bowman** (NY-16)
Rep. Brian Higgins (NY-26)
Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR-03): Ranking Member of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade
Rep. Colin Allred* (TX-32)
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA-07): Ranking Member of the Agriculture Subcommittee on Conservation Research, and Biotechnology
Rep. Jennifer Wexton (VA- I 0)
Rep. Derek Kilmer (WA-06): Ranking Member of the House Administration Subcommittee on Modernization

Departing House Republicans

*Running for another office
**Lost primary

Rep. Debbie Lesko (AZ-08)
Rep. Greg Lopez (CO-04)
Rep. Doug Lamborn (CO-05): Chairman of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces; Vice Chairman of the Natural Resources Committee
Rep. Bill Posey (FL-08)
Rep. Drew Ferguson (GA-03)
Rep. Jim Banks* (IN-03): Chairmain of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel
Rep. Greg Pence (IN-06)
Rep. Larry Bucshon (IN-08)
Rep. Jake La Turner (KS-02)
Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA): Chairman of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel
Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-03): Vice Chair of the Small Business Committee; Chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions
Rep. Matt Rosendale (MT-02): Chair of the Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Technology Modernization
Rep. Dan Bishop (NC-08)*
Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC- 10)Chairman of the Financial Services Committee
Rep. Kelly Armstrong* (ND-AL)
Rep. Brad Wenstrup (OH-02): Chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the
Coronavirus Pandemic
Rep. Bill Johnson (OH-06): Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing, and Critical Minerals
Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon (PR-AL)
Rep. Jeff Duncan (SC-06)
Rep. Kay Granger (TX- I2): Chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee
Rep. Michael Burgess (TX-26)
Rep. John Curtis* (UT-03)
Rep. Bob Good (V A-05)**
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (W A-05): Chairwoman of Energy and Commerce Committee
Rep. Mike Gallagher (Wl-08): Chairman of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party; Chairman of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems
Rep. Alex Mooney* (WV-02)

Election At-a-Glance

Presidential: President Biden’s debate performance and the concerns it raises about his fitness for office continue to dominate the headlines nearly two weeks after the highly anticipated and historically early first presidential debate. Although both President Biden and former President Trump did little to alleviate voters’ significant concerns about each candidate, Biden’s performance, labeled “halting” and “fumbling” in the headlines, overshadowed Trump’s “falsehoods” and refusal to address difficult topics. Some Democrats are questioning Biden’s ability to win the election and raising concerns about his impact on down-ballot races, and some are actively calling for him to step aside. With four months until Election Day, there is still time for either campaign to win over the independent and undecided voters necessary to win the few swing states that will decide the election.

Senate: After the midpoint of Senate primary season, most campaigns are now pivoting to the general election. Challengers are beginning to shift messaging from targeting base voters to speaking to Independents, especially in the closest Senate matchups like Arizona.

House: Just over four months from Election Day, Democrats and Republicans are defending an evenly divided number of Toss-Up seats. The unpopularity of the candidates at the top of the ticket has both Democrats and Republicans concerned about their impact on House races, especially in critical swing districts.

Governor: Ten of this year’s 22 gubernatorial primaries remain, with results in solid Republican and Democratic states essentially determining the winner in November. Two states where the governor’s mansion could flip parties — North Carolina and New Hampshire — are running tight and worth tracking closely.

Presidential

The (Not So) Great Debate

The June 27 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be one of the defining moments of the 2024 campaign. At least for now, it has dramatically shifted the focus of the campaign to some voters’ fears about Biden’s age and mental acuity. During the debate, Biden struggled with a hoarse voice and at times failed to complete his line of thought. His performance sparked panic among Democrats, with some questioning his ability to lead the party’s ticket and others calling for Biden to drop out of the race. In a morning-after New York Times opinion piece, Biden supporter Thomas Friedman stated, “I cannot remember a more heartbreaking moment in American presidential campaign politics in my lifetime — precisely because of what it revealed: Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election.”

In the days since the debate, Biden has worked to change the narrative, though a recent primetime interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos did little to alleviate Democratic concerns. Although he acknowledged the debate as a “bad episode,” Biden pushed back on concerns about his age and mental fitness and pledged to stay in the race, saying only “Lord Almighty” could force him to bow out. A small number of elected Democrats are now calling for Biden to step aside. However, party leaders are offering support to their standard bearer. Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Gavin Newsom (CA), House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) and others reiterated their support for Biden, calling his debate performance “a slow start” and an incomplete accounting of his record. Former President Barack Obama also showed support for Biden, reassuring Democrats that “bad debate nights happen” and urging voters to back Biden in November.

On the other hand, Trump refused to address directly the debate moderators’ questions in several instances. Rather than responding to questions about childcare, climate change, and January 6th, Trump hammered points on economy, immigration, and crime. A CNN flash poll after the debate suggested that this approach worked for Trump — 67 percent of viewers believed Trump won the debate, while 33 percent favored Biden. Twelve out of 14 undecided swing state voters in an Axios focus group said that the debate made them lean towards supporting Trump. Trump received more good news on July 1 when the Supreme Court ruled that presidents are afforded immunity for any “official acts” as president, all but ensuring that a trial on criminal charges related to his attempts to reverse the 2020 election will not be resolved until after the November election.

Many are looking to post-debate polling to determine how Biden’s bad night will impact the race, and so far, the polling is mixed. Several polls show Biden losing ground to Trump in the immediate aftermath. For example, a Suffolk University/USA Today poll has Trump ahead 41 percent to 38. That same poll had the race tied prior to the debate. However, some polling shows the race nearly unchanged since before the debate. A deeper look at the numbers suggests troubling signs for Biden, with early indications that voters’ concerns about his age are growing. A recent 538/Ipsos survey found that only 42 percent of Democrats rate the President’s mental fitness as excellent or good, compared to 56 percent previously. The Biden team looks to regain ground with several upcoming campaign visits to battleground states and a $50 million ad blitz.

A Contested Convention?

In the unlikely event that Biden steps aside, the pledged delegates allocated based on the primary results would no longer be bound to vote for Biden at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in August. The convention would be “open” or “brokered,” meaning no candidate would have secured the majority of delegates needed for nomination. This would lead to multiple rounds of voting by the delegates until a candidate receives a majority. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) would need to quickly establish new rules for nominating and voting procedures, as the existing rules are designed for a scenario where a presumptive nominee is already in place. This means that Vice President Kamala Harris would not become the presumptive nominee by default.

Brokered conventions are rare in modern politics. The last truly brokered conventions for both major parties occurred in 1952. Ultimately, while discussions about replacing Biden continue among some Democrats following his debate performance, the likelihood of a contested convention still remains low.

Arizona and Georgia Battlegrounds

While Biden’s poor debate performance sparked concern among leading Democrats, both campaigns must now turn back to the critical task of engaging independent and undecided voters in battleground states. Independent voters were key to Biden’s razor-thin victories in Arizona and Georgia in 2020. His narrow 2020 success in these states, winning Arizona by just over 10,000 votes and Georgia by just over 11,000, were integral to his Electoral College win and a major focus of Trump’s stolen election claims. Republicans have won 16 of the last 18 presidential elections in Arizona and 8 of the last 10 in Georgia. The latest polling suggests if the election were to be held today, it would be unlikely that Biden could keep both Sunbelt states in his column.

Arizona Issues

In 2020, Arizona voters narrowly backed a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1996. Thirty-nine percent of Arizonans questioned in exit polls identified as “independent or something else.” Of that group, Biden earned support from 53 percent, while Trump won 44 percent. In 2016, Independents were crucial to Trump’s victory in the state. Independents now make up 34 percent of Arizona’s registered voters, surpassing both major political parties, and they will once again tip the scales in 2024. These voters will be critical as nonpartisan voters tend to be driven by dissatisfaction with both major parties.

Recent polling shows former President Trump up by 5 percentage points on average in a head-to-head Arizona matchup with Biden and 6 percentage points when third-party candidates are included. Given Arizona’s significant immigrant population and its 370-mile border with Mexico, the candidates’ positions on immigration remain a major factor in voters’ decisions. Recent polling suggests that immigration is a major factor for 31 percent of Arizona voters, compared to 20 percent prioritizing the economy and 11 percent focused on housing.

The issue of female reproductive health could also swing Arizona voters. Abortion access in Arizona made national headlines for months after a near-total ban on abortion from 1864 was reinstated following the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Advocates on both sides of the issue are working to add ballot measures that would enshrine protections or restrictions for abortion statewide. Reproductive rights activists claim that a leaked Republican strategy document shows that the competing ballot measure is intended to confuse voters. Polling shows 65 percent of likely voters would vote for a constitutional right to abortion. While Democrats hope that reproductive rights will help turn out voters in support of Biden around the country, support for a proposed abortion rights amendment in Arizona is running ahead of support for Joe Biden in the key swing state.

Biden is also concerned about recent polling showing older voters in Arizona favoring Trump by a wider margin than in 2020. Seniors make up 18 percent of Arizona’s population and the state remains a popular retirement destination. With older people more likely to vote than the average American, the Biden campaign recently turned its focus on winning over Arizona’s senior population, hosting “Seniors for Biden-Harris” bingo events and dispatching First Lady Jill Biden to Arizona to speak to seniors.

Georgia on My Mind

Before 2020, Democrats last won Georgia in 1992. Georgia has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate in consecutive elections since former President and Georgia governor Jimmy Carter ran in 1976 and 1980. Like other sunbelt swing states, Trump is polling well in Georgia, with an average lead of 4 percent. Recent polling indicates key issues for Georgians this year are the economy, preserving democracy, and immigration. Trump continues to lead among voters who care most about the economy and immigration, and the candidates run evenly among voters who care most about preserving democracy. It remains to be seen how Trump’s legal troubles in the state will impact voters. Trump continues to deal with ongoing litigation over individual’s alleged actions to overturn the state’s results in 2020.

In a poll conducted in Georgia after Trump’s conviction in New York for falsifying business records, Trump maintained an advantage over Biden, while Independent voters were evenly split between the two candidates. In this same poll, 61 percent of Independent voters said Trump’s guilty verdict would not make a difference to their vote. In 2020, Biden received 53 percent of the vote from voters identified as “independent or something else,” who made up 28 percent of Georgia’s electorate.

The Democratic party is facing falling support among Black and Hispanic voters nationwide. This trend could be particularly harmful to Biden in Georgia, where support among black voters, who make up 33 percent of the state’s population, was key to his presidential victory. In 2020, Biden received 88 percent of Black voters in Georgia; some current polling has him at 64 percent. Taking this threat seriously, the Biden campaign is opening 10 campaign offices across the state, and the operation is being led by the former head of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-GA) successful Senate campaign. During the presidential debate, held in Atlanta, Trump made his appeal to black voters, saying that Biden caused inflation that is “killing Black families and Hispanic families.” He also argued that immigration has led to black and Hispanic voters losing their jobs to immigrants. In the debate, Biden countered that his Administration has created “hundreds of thousands of jobs,” including for minority communities. In a state Biden won by just 11,000 votes in 2020, maintaining strong support from Black voters will be crucial for his 2024 electoral success.

Meanwhile, Trump seeks to regain support in suburban and metropolitan Atlanta counties, where he underperformed in 2020. Demographic shifts and population growth in the suburban counties of Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry, and the metropolitan counties of Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton led to increasing Democratic margins in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Biden increased Democratic vote shares in Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry by at least eight percent from 2016. Notably, Biden was able to drastically shift support in areas with higher-income voters, where there are a majority of college graduates, and where voters are aged 65 and older. Biden was also able to win over support from voters who supported Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. Population shifts continue to benefit Biden in the Atlanta suburbs, with an expected 13,500 more likely Democratic voters than Republican voters moving to Georgia since the 2020 election.

Money Talks

Both campaigns announced their fundraising totals for the second quarter of the year. The Trump campaign’s $331 million second-quarter haul outpaced the Biden campaign and DNC’s $264 million. Biden’s campaign is still claiming momentum, citing its $127 million raised during June compared to the Trump campaign’s $112 million for the month.

Both campaigns saw significant fundraising boosts after otherwise bad news. The RNC announced that it raised $52.8 million in the 24 hours after Trump was convicted in his New York trial, far from the first time Trump’s legal troubles have fueled his fundraising. Trump received spikes in fundraising after indictments by federal grand juries in Florida in June 2023 and Washington, DC, in August 2023. Trump Super PAC MAGA Inc. announced it raised $70 million in May and plans to spend at least $100 million on advertising in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada through early September. On the other hand, Biden’s team announced they raised $38 million in the days immediately following his shacky debate performance. However, Biden’s team is dealing with defections from some of their campaign’s top donors, with some citing trouble getting others to join previously scheduled fundraisers. Pundits will look to the next few month’s fundraising numbers to determine the debate’s true impact on the money race.

Changes at the RNC

Republicans will head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15 to 18 to officially nominate Trump and his vice-presidential selection at the Republican National Convention (RNC). Trump declared that he would announce his running mate at the convention in interviews with Dr. Phil and on Fox News in early June. The Trump campaign invited North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Senators J.D. Vance (OH), Tim Scott (SC), and Marco Rubio (FL), Reps. Byron Donalds (FL) and Elise Stefanik (NY), Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ben Carson to the presidential debate in Atlanta to serve as campaign surrogates.

The RNC has undergone a systemic change since the ascension of Michael Whatley and Lara Trump, as its Chair and Co-Chair after the ousting of longtime chair Ronna McDaniel in March. Whatley and Trump effectively merged the RNC and the Trump campaign together, making major shakeups in staffing and fundraising strategies. The RNC plans to focus the convention on increasing turnout by encouraging early voting and mail-in ballots.

Senate

The Senate primary season is more than halfway through, with 15 states remaining to select their nominees for the November election. As Senate campaigns pivot to the general election, Independent voters will play a significant role, especially in the closest Senate matchups.

Arizona

Making up one-third of the state’s voters, Arizona’s Independents will determine the state’s next Senator and, as a result, could determine the Senate majority in 2024. The state was represented for 30 years by “maverick” Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and is currently represented by two senators who won their seats touting their moderate credentials. However, this year’s Senate race features two candidates known more for their appeal to their respective parties’ bases.

Running to replace avowed centrist Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and expected Republican nominee Kari Lake (R) are facing pressure to appeal to Independent voters. Gallego, who previously campaigned as a progressive, has moderated his tone and positions during the Senate campaign. In contrast, Lake, who lost her court challenge to her 2022 loss in the Arizona governor’s race, continues to run as a polarizing hard-right candidate, arguing that her alignment with Trump will be key to winning in November.

Although Lake is projected to win the upcoming Arizona Republican primary against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb by double digits, her hard right candidacy may have less appeal beyond the 35 percent of Arizona voters who are registered Republicans. In polling, Gallego holds a six-point lead on average and maintains a significant fundraising advantage. Gallego is using that funding to build an early TV ad advantage, running positive spots to define his moderate credentials. While Gallego is making some inroads with McCain and Sinema donors with his moves to the middle, he has yet to convince Senator Sinema, who suggested she does not see Gallego or Lake as sufficiently moderate. When asked what advice she would give her successor at a recent McCain Institute forum, the former Democrat said, “candidates who campaign as righteous warriors for the edges of the political spectrum will not be productive in getting outcomes for the state of Arizona, period.”

Primary Recaps

Nevada (Toss-Up): Incumbent Jacky Rosen (D-NV) and Trump-endorsed Sam Brown (R) won their respective primaries and are headed to the general election for one of this cycle’s most difficult Senate matchups. Brown, who lost the Republican primary in 2022 to Trump-endorsed Adam Laxalt, received Trump’s endorsement in the days leading up to Nevada’s June primary.

North Dakota (Solid Republican): With both candidates running unopposed in their respective primaries, incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) will defend his seat against Democratic challenger Katrina Christiansen in November. An engineering professor by trade running on an anti-corporate greed and pro-family platform, Christiansen faces a tough task. Cramer is one of the few Republicans this cycle to have amassed more in fundraising than their Democratic challengers and is a heavily favored to win a second term in early polling.

New York (Solid Democrat): After winning the Republican Party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement, businessman and retired NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone (R-NY) will challenge incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in November’s general election. Meanwhile, Gillibrand, who ran unopposed in the primary, will be seeking a repeat performance of 2018, where she defeated her Trump-endorsed opponent by over 30 points.

Utah (Solid Republican): Primary winners Caroline Gleich (D-UT) and Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) will head to the general election for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-UT) open senate seat. Curtis is expected to continue his moderate approach after defeating Utah Republican Party and Trump favorite Trent Staggs by a large margin. Gleich, a professional skier and climate activist, is vying to become the first Democrat from Utah in the Senate since 1977. However, her campaign faces a tough climb to overcome a 4:1 Republican voter registration advantage in the state.

Virginia (Solid Democrat): Navy veteran Hung Cao (R) emerged victorious amongst a crowded field of Republican candidates in the June 18 GOP primary. Cao, who was recently endorsed by Trump, will face incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who ran unopposed for the nomination and is seeking a third consecutive term. Cao faces an uphill battle to flip the seat as Kaine’s popularity has enabled him to win each of his elections by an average margin of 11 points. He currently leads Cao by 12 points in the polls.

Upcoming Spotlights

Maine (Solid Democrat): Incumbent Sen. Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with the Democrats, will defend his seat against two challengers, former Maine GOP Chair Demi Kouzounas (R-ME) and government reform advocate David Costello (D-ME), in the general election. Initially facing questions about his age for seeking another six-year term, 80-year-old King officially launched his reelection campaign in late May, citing concerns that the Senate is losing its moderate centrists. Kouzounas, who was reportedly urged to run by Maine’s senior senator Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), hopes Costello will siphon off Democrat votes from King and increase her chances of flipping the seat. King faced both Democrat and Republican challengers for the seat before, winning comfortably in both 2012 and 2018.

Texas (Likely Republican): Although some observers originally predicted a tighter Senate race in Texas, the latest polls show incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with a 13-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). Allred is a prolific fundraiser, however, and raised $9.5 million this past quarter, more than former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) raised at this point in 2018. Cruz’s campaign raised a commanding $51 million in total and is messaging a more bipartisan tone to appeal to the state’s Independent voters.

Fundraising

After Trump’s guilty verdict in his New York hush-money case, the National Republican Senatorial Convention (NRSC) had its highest one-day online fundraising total of this cycle. They raised over $360,000 in a 24-hour period, which is more than double their daily average over this year’s first quarter. Capitalizing on the influx of cash, they announced a $100 million ad buy in the key battleground states of Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, and Arizona. This is significantly higher than the recently announced $79 million ad by planned by the DSCC.

House

Just over four months from Election Day, Cook Political Report rates 69 of the 435 House seats as competitive, while Inside Elections rates 73 seats as in play. Both publications cite an evenly divided number of “Toss-Up” seats for each political party.

Despite many congressional Democrats polling ahead of President Biden in their districts, there is increasing concern that the top of the ticket could negatively impact vulnerable House Democrats in November. Biden’s subpar June debate performance and sluggish polling in key states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are forcing Democratic Frontline Members and challengers to distance themselves from Biden on unpopular issues, including the southern border and inflation. Biden’s debate performance, in particular, alarmed vulnerable Democratic Members, and several in tough reelection races have called on the President to step aside.

While House Republicans are fully aligned behind Trump, including in the wake of his recent criminal conviction, Trump will likely create challenging electoral dynamics for Republican incumbents and candidates in blue states like New York and California and swing districts across the country. In New York alone, five freshmen Republican House Members competing in tough re-elections this November will face criticism for their purported allegiance to Trump.

Race Recaps

Special Election

OH-06 (Solid Republican): State senator Michael Rulli (R-OH) defeated first-time Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak by a narrower-than-expected margin in the June 11 special election to fill Ohio’s sixth congressional district, the seat vacated by retiring Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH). Rulli narrowly defeated Kripchak by less than ten percent in this district, which favored Trump by nearly 30 points in 2020. OH-06 has seen one of the largest swings to the right in recent years. Under its current lines, the district would have voted for President Barack Obama by eight points in 2008, which means the district swung about 37 points between the 2008 and 2020 presidential elections. The close result is another example of Democrats outperforming expectations in low-turnout special elections. Rulli will be sworn in on July 25, establishing a 219–213 Republican majority in the House. In the November general election, Rulli will run against Kripchak again to serve the district next Congress.

Primaries

Nevada — June 11

NV-03 (Lean Democrat): In a competitive and expensive Republican primary, Libertarian think tank founder Drew Johnson defeated video game composer Marty O’Donnell (endorsed by Gov. Joe Lombardo (R)), former state senator Elizabeth Helgelien, and former state treasurer Dan Schwartz. While the race was awash with hundreds of thousands of dollars in self-funding from Schwartz and O’Donnell, low turnout in the primary propelled Johnson to victory. In November, Johnson will seek to defeat incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) in this narrowly Democratic district.

North Dakota — June 11

ND — AL (Solid Republican): North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak won a five-person Republican primary to replace Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) as the state’s sole Member of Congress. Fedorchak — who received endorsements from Trump, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), and Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND) — won with nearly 50 percent of the vote. She defeated Rick Becker, who had the support of the House Freedom Caucus and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). Fedorchak will take on Democrat Trygve Hammer in the general election.

South Carolina — June 11 (SC-03 runoff, June 25)

SC-01 (Solid Republican): Two years ago, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) narrowly won a primary challenge against the Trump-endorsed former state representative Katie Arrington. This year Mace faced another competitive primary challenge –this time from former Gov. Nikki Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton — and faced uncertainty that the Supreme Court could redraw the district’s lines to address a gerrymandering case. Ultimately, the district’s boundaries will remain the same for this cycle. While Templeton received significant financial support from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) after Mace voted to oust him from his speakership, Mace won the primary by a wide margin of 27 percent. She will face Democrat Michael Moore in November.

SC — 03 (Solid Republican): Air National Guard veteran Sheri Biggs defeated televangelist Mark Burns in the Republican primary runoff to fill the deep red seat of Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) in Western South Carolina. Burns, an African American pastor known for his strong support of President Trump, received Trump’s endorsement, but it was not enough to secure the nomination. Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) supported Biggs, who is all but certain to defeat Democrat Bryon Best in November.

SC-04 (Solid Republican): Incumbent Rep. William Timmons (R-SC) faced a serious primary challenge from state representative and Chairman of the South Carolina Freedom Caucus Adam Morgan. Though he had the support of former President Trump and received almost $2 million in financial support from the crypto-backed super PAC Defend American Jobs, Timmons only managed to squeak out a four-point victory. Timmons will face Democrat Evangeline Hundley in November.

Maine — June 11

ME-02 (Toss-Up): Austin Theriault defeated fellow state representative Michael Soboleski in the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) in November in this highly competitive district. Theriault is a 30-year-old former NASCAR driver and small business owner endorsed by former President Trump. The race is a top priority for the GOP this cycle. ME-02 favors Republicans by six points, and Golden is one of only five Democrats representing a district that voted for Trump in 2020.

Oklahoma — June 18:

OK-04 (Solid Republican): Longtime Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) defeated Paul Bondar, a little-known businessman who ran to Cole’s right on hot-button issues including immigration and Ukraine aid funding. Cole won handily and will face Democrat Mary Brannon for the fourth consecutive time in November in the solidly red district.

Virginia — June 18

VA-02 (Lean Republican): Former business owner Missy Cotter Smasal won the Democratic nomination to run against freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) in one of Virginia’s most competitive districts. Smasal garnered high-profile endorsements from former Virginia Governor Ralph Northam (D-VA) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Kiggans was elected to the House in 2022 after narrowly defeating two-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) 51 to 48 percent.

VA — 05 (Solid Republican): After Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), Chair of the House Freedom Caucus, endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for President last year, Trump struck back with an endorsement of Good’s primary challenger, state senator John McGuire. With Trump’s backing, McGuire narrowly defeated Good in central Virginia’s fifth district and will take on Democrat Gloria Witt in the general election.

VA-07 (Lean Democrat): Eugene Vindman won a competitive Democratic primary to fill the seat of incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who is leaving Congress to run for Governor. Vindman, a former army colonel who gained national attention when he helped his brother file a report that led to the first Trump impeachment inquiry, won the crowded Democratic primary with almost 50 percent of the vote. Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), won the Republican primary. VA-07 is one of the state’s most competitive districts, and the NRCC has identified it as a top target to flip this November.

VA-10 (Solid Democrat): Last year, Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) announced she would retire at the end of this Congress due to health reasons. State senator Suhas Subramanyam won the crowded and costly Democratic primary to fill the seat, in part propelled to victory from Wexton’s endorsement in May. Subramanyam narrowly defeated state representative Dan Helmer, the other frontrunner in the race who faced last-minute calls to drop out over a sexual harassment allegation. Subramanyam will face Republican Mike Clancy, a lawyer and business executive, in the solidly Democratic district. If elected in November, Subramanyam will be the first Indian American elected to Congress from Virginia.

Colorado — June 25

CO-03 (Lean Republican): Lawyer Jeff Hurd emerged from a crowded GOP field to clinch the nomination for Rep. Boebert’s (R-CO) former seat. Among the candidates, the primary featured former state representative Ron Hanks, a conservative who Democrats had hoped to face in the general. However, Hurd was buoyed by outside spending from the House GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF). He will face second-time Democratic candidate Adam Frisch. Frisch nearly upset Boebert in 2022, losing by approximately 600 votes.

CO-04 (Solid Republican): The special election to serve the remainder of the term for former Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) occurred concurrently with the primary for the general election to fill the seat next Congress.

Special: Republican nominee Greg Lopez prevailed over former Democratic congressional and campaign staffer Trisha Calvarese to serve the remainder of Buck’s term. Lopez is not seeking a full two-year term in the fall and will instead serve as a caretaker in the seat until November.

General: After announcing that she would not run again in CO-03, Boebert handily won her primary to fill the seat next Congress due to six other Republican candidates splitting the vote. Boebert capitalized on her national platform as a conservative firebrand to outraise her opponents by a 10-to-one margin. She will take on Calvarese in the general election.

CO-05 (Solid Republican): Jeff Crank, a podcaster and executive with the Koch network-backed Americans for Prosperity organization, defeated Colorado state GOP chair Dave Williams. This open seat, held by retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), was the backdrop for internal GOP politicking. Trump endorsed Williams, while Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Lamborn endorsed Crank. Crank will face the eventual Democratic nominee, either first-time candidate River Gassen or Joe Reagan.

CO-08 (Toss-Up): In the Republican primary to take on freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), Gabe Evans, a state representative and Army veteran, came out on top against Janak Joshi, a former state lawmaker and physician. Evans received a late Trump endorsement and support from the House GOP CLF, which helped propel him to victory. Caraveo won this newly created swing seat by less than one percentage point in 2022.

New York — June 25

NY-01 (Likely Republican): While Republicans have represented NY-01 for almost a decade and is slightly safer after redistricting, Democrats view it as a swing seat and hope to defeat freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) this November. In the Democratic primary, former CNN commentator John Avlon defeated the 2020 Democratic candidate Nancy Goroff with over 70 percent of the vote. Avalon hopes to leverage high name recognition from his CNN career to unseat Lalota in the Republican-leaning battleground district.

NY-04 (Toss-Up): The general election will be a rematch of 2022, with incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) facing Democratic candidate Laura Gillen. NY-04 is one of the best pick-up opportunities for Democrats this cycle — Joe Biden won the district by almost 15 percent in 2020. Gillen, the former Hempstead town supervisor, will be equipped with significant resources this cycle and is on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program.

NY-16 (Solid Democrat): Incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) lost to Westchester County Executive George Latimer in one of the most high-profile intraparty fights this cycle, and the most expensive House primary ever. Bowman, a member of the so-called “Squad,” faced sharp criticism for his critical stance on Israel in a district with many Jewish constituents, and outside spending from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) boosted Latimer’s campaign. The contentious primary intensified into a larger proxy fight between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party. Latimer is expected to sail to victory in November in the overwhelmingly Democratic district.

NY-17 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) will face former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) in November. Jones represented the district from 2021–2023, but after redistricting opted to run in NY-10. Jones lost the 2022 primary to current Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY). Lawler made national headlines when he narrowly defeated former DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) in 2022 to take over the NY-17 seat. The Lawler-Jones matchup will be one of the most closely watched this cycle. Jones recently faced criticism from his party’s left flank after endorsing Democratic challenger George Latimer in NY-16.

NY-18 (Toss-Up): Republican Allison Esposito won her party’s nomination to face off against incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) this November. Esposito, a 25-year veteran of the New York Police Department, established herself in the political circuit as the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in 2022. Esposito is focusing her campaign on public safety, crime, and inflation. NY-18 is the only Hudson Valley congressional district that the GOP did not flip in 2022 and is a top target for Republicans this cycle.

NY-19 (Toss-Up): NY-19 is set for a rematch of the 2022 race, with Democratic challenger Josh Riley again facing off against freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Molinaro narrowly defeated Riley by less than 5,000 votes in 2022. The newly redrawn NY-19 district is slightly less Democratic compared to the previous map used in 2022, setting up an uphill battle for Riley this cycle.

NY-22 (Lean Democrat): Currently represented by freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY), NY-22 leans slightly Democratic after the state’s congressional map changes approved earlier this year. State senator John Mannion handily defeated U.S. Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood in the Democratic primary. Mannion has had previous success in tough races, flipping a longstanding Republican stronghold in the state Senate in 2020 before winning reelection by 10 votes in 2022. The Syracuse-area district is a top red-to-blue target for Democrats this cycle.

NY-24 (Solid Republican): Incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) defeated right-wing challenger Mario Fratto in a rematch of the 2022 Republican primary. With the backing of Trump and Speaker Johnson, Tenney won 61 percent of the vote and is the heavy favorite to win in November in the solidly Republican district.

Utah — June 25

UT — 02 (Solid Republican): Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) won a special election in late 2023 to fill the seat of her former boss, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT). Maloy had hoped to cruise to renomination, but her prospects were complicated by Sen. Mike Lee’s (R-UT) endorsement of her more conservative challenger Colby Jenkins, a former Army Special Forces Green Beret. With Trump’s support, Maloy narrowly held on to win the Republican nomination and will face Democrat Nathaniel Woodward in November.

UT — 03 (Solid Republican): State Senator Mike Kennedy won a crowded Republican primary for Utah’s third congressional district, vacated by Rep. John Curtis (R-UT). Curtis won his party’s nomination for Senate. Kennedy, who authored Utah’s ban on transgender surgeries for minors and opposes further military aid to Ukraine, was seen as the most conservative of the five candidates running for the nomination. Kennedy will be heavily favored against Democrat Glenn Wright in November.

Upcoming Primaries

Arizona — July 30

AZ-01 (Toss-Up): The Democratic primary for Arizona’s first district is heating up, with six candidates vying for the nomination to challenge incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ). The candidates are Andrei Cherny, a former CEO and past chair of the state Democratic Party; Marlene Galan-Woods, a former journalist and wife of the late Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods; Dr. Andrew Horne, an orthodontist motivated to run after his daughter experienced a school shooting; Kurt Kroemer, a businessman; Conor O’Callaghan, an Irish immigrant; and Dr. Amish Shah, a state legislator and physician. Reproductive rights and health care are key issues in this competitive primary and will likely play a large role in the general election. Schweikert won by less than one percent of the vote in 2022, making this race a top priority for Democrats.

AZ-03 (Solid Democrat): Former Phoenix councilmember Yassamin Ansari, former state senator Raquel Terán, and Dr. Duane Wooten are competing to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is leaving the seat to run for the Senate. Ansari and Terán are emerging as the frontrunners and differ more in style than on policy, with both identifying as progressive. Endorsements are likely to decide who wins the nomination, and the seat by proxy, in this heavily Democratic district.

AZ-06 (Toss-Up): Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) is fighting off a primary challenge from Kathleen Winn, who is running to his right. Winn ran against Ciscomani in 2022 and has since criticized him for not being conservative enough for the Tucson-centered district. Ciscomani secured Trump’s endorsement, which may help insulate him from Winn’s attacks. The winner will face Democratic nominee Kirsten Engel, who narrowly lost to Ciscomani in 2022.

AZ-08 (Solid Republican): This open seat has a heated GOP primary following Rep. Debbie Lesko’s (R-AZ) retirement announcement. The six-person field includes former Senate candidate and venture capitalist Blake Masters, former attorney general candidate Abe Hamadeh, former Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ), and state senator and indicted fake elector Anthony Kern. Masters and Hamadeh are sparring over each other’s character and conservative record, setting a bitter tone for the race.

Party Committee Updates/Fundraising

The NRCC posted strong fundraising totals in May, besting their Democratic counterparts by $732k. They raised $13.6 million to the DCCC’s $12.9 million during the month. It was the first month this year that the House Republican campaign arm outraised the Democratic arm. In the days following Trump’s conviction and the corresponding fundraising windfall, the Trump campaign warned down-ballot candidates not to fundraise off the conviction without their consent. Trump’s campaign said it wants to avoid any potential siphoning off of money that could otherwise go directly to them. According to the NRCC, the group raised $1 million from small-dollar donors in the days following Trump New York conviction. Of these donors, 32% were first-time donors to the NRCC.

Democrats, on the other hand, continue to prioritize reproductive rights in House campaigns. The Democratic outside spending group House Majority PAC (HMP) recently launched a $100 million campaign focused on reproductive rights in swing districts across the country. HMP’s Reproductive Freedom Accountability Fund will spend $85 million on paid messaging, $10 million to support voter registration and mobilization campaigns, and $5 million on polling, focus groups, and ad testing.

Governors

Past the midpoint of the gubernatorial primaries, the outcome of spring Republican primaries virtually locked in the next governor in solid Republican states like North Dakota. The governor’s races with the most salient opportunities for party turnover this cycle — North Carolina and New Hampshire — are tightening, with Cook Political Report moving North Carolina’s rating from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up last month. Gubernatorial primaries will slow down through the summer, next on the calendar is Missouri and Washington on August 6.

Primary Recaps

North Dakota (Solid Republican): Despite efforts by Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller (R) to pull off an upset, Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) easily won the June 11 Republican primary by 46 points. Amidst speculation that outgoing Governor Doug Burgum (R) is high on Trump’s vice presidential shortlist, Armstrong and Miller sought to align themselves with Trump. Tax reform and recreational marijuana use were other top issues in the final debate before the primary, with the candidates holding similar stances on taxes and differing on recreational marijuana. In a state that Trump won by 34 points in 2020, Trump-endorsed Armstrong is all but certain to defeat Democrat Merrill Piepkorn and Independent Michael Coachman in the general election.

Utah (Solid Republican): While the June 25 Republican primary was closer than polls predicted, Utah incumbent governor Spencer Cox (R) locked down his path to a second term with 56 percent of the vote, despite losing his party’s endorsement to challenger state Rep. Phil Lyman (R). Cox used the primary debate to tout his first-term accomplishments, including tax cuts, a school voucher program, and tackling social media companies in court. Immigration was also a key issue, with both candidates criticizing the Biden-Harris Administration’s handling of the border. Cox is heavily favored to defeat state Rep. Brian King (D) in the general election.

Race Spotlights

North Carolina (Toss-Up): Recent polling has Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) tied at 37 percent, with 17 percent of voters undecided, as Democrats aim to hold on to the seat of term-limited Governor Roy Cooper (D). This race mirrors some overarching trends in national races, as Stein — like other Democrats — attempts to woo rural voters through frequent campaign events. Reproductive rights are in the spotlight in this race, with Stein’s first ad blitz calling attention to Robinson’s previous remarks against abortion and Robinson is under fire for speaking at an event sponsored by an anti-birth control group. Robinson’s campaign is focusing on the economy in recent speeches, a top issue for North Carolina voters. In this presidential battleground state, Stein will look to outperform Biden through split-ticket voters; among Independent voters, Robinson trails Stein by 11 points.

New Hampshire (Toss-Up): In the race to replace term-limited Governor Chris Sununu (R), four frontrunners continue to fight for their respective parties’ nominations ahead of the September 10 primaries. A May poll has former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte in a solid 22-point lead over former state Senate president Chuck Morse in the Republican primary. While both Republican candidates criticize Trump’s recent conviction, Morse is attempting to leverage Ayotte’s previous withdrawal of support for Trump to close the gap. Meanwhile, the Democratic frontrunners — former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and New Hampshire Executive Councilmember Cinde Warmington — are making efforts to reach out to young voters, a critical voting bloc for Democrats hoping to flip this seat, by speaking at student-moderated forums.

Election At-a-Glance

Presidential: The presidential campaigns are zeroing in on six key battleground states that President Joe Biden won in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won each by only tens of thousands of votes. But recent polling shows former President Donald Trump leads or is statistically tied with Biden in five of the six states, raising concerns about Biden’s ability to win the 270 electoral college votes needed for reelection.

Senate: Defending all the competitive Senate seats this cycle and with the expectation that Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) seat will flip red, Democrats cannot afford to lose any of the competitive races (or the presidency). With Trump currently leading in multiple battleground states where vulnerable Democratic senators are on the ballot, Democrats may need split-ticket voters to keep their majority.

House: Primary season is in full swing: June and August are the busiest months of the congressional primary calendar. Despite several high-profile primary challenges, both parties are successfully protecting their incumbents so far.

Governor: Gubernatorial races are largely happening outside the battleground states. Republican primary winners in Montana, Vermont, and Utah will likely win their gubernatorial races.

Presidential

With Election Day five months away, the presidential campaigns are zeroing in on six key battleground states that President Joe Biden won in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by more than seven million votes, he secured the 270 electoral college votes needed to win by only tens of thousands of votes in each of these states.

Today, polls show former President Donald Trump leading or statistically tied with Biden in five of these states, while Biden holds a small lead in Michigan. At this point, it is unclear how Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts will impact the polling in these battleground states and elsewhere.

With the presidency again likely to be decided by thin margins in these six battleground states, each month Invariant will spotlight the unique politics, demographics, and issues that define the race in each battleground state.

What Happens in Nevada…

Nevada is a bellwether for presidential elections, with the winner in the state going on to win the presidency in 10 of the 12 most recent elections. One of the two exceptions was Donald Trump’s win in 2016 after losing the state.

Today, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump leading Biden in Nevada by 5.4 percentage points with his lead increasing to 7.5 points when third-party candidates are included. Trump’s lead in Nevada polling is particularly notable because he lost the state in both 2016 and 2020. In 2020, Biden won the state by a 2.4 percentage points, the largest margin among the five battleground states that Trump currently leads. Nevada is likely to be a must-win state for the next president.

A Unique Electorate

In Nevada, Biden and Trump will face one of the nation’s most diverse and fastest-growing electorates. More than 22 percent of registered Nevada voters are Latino, while 12 percent are Black and 11 percent Asian American Pacific Islanders (AAPI). In 2020, Biden won the state by bringing together a broad Democratic coalition of voters, winning Latino voters with 26 percent. However, recent polling shows that Trump and Republicans are gaining support among Latinos in Nevada and nationwide, partly due to concerns about the economy. Biden’s campaign signaled the groups importance when they announced it spent over $1 million on Hispanic media ad buys in May.

Voters’ negative views about the economy are hurting Biden around the country, but even more so in Nevada. The pandemic hit the travel and hospitality industries especially hard, and Nevada’s recovery lagged other states. Nevada’s current 5.1 percent unemployment rate remains higher than the 3.9 percent national average. Biden’s campaign message of a strong pandemic recovery and a strong economy for the working and middle classes is not yet breaking through.

In a recent poll, 61 percent of Nevada voters reported trusting Trump on the economy compared to 32 percent for Biden. That same poll showed 82 percent of Nevada voters view the economy as “only fair” or “poor.” Abortion rights could help Biden overcome his deficit on the economy. Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom recently announced it has collected the necessary 200,000 signatures for a ballot measure to enshrine “a fundamental right to abortion” in the state’s constitution.

Independent Surge

Last year, independent or nonpartisan voters became the state’s largest voting bloc due to voters’ dissatisfaction with the two major parties and the state’s automatic voter registration system. Implemented in 2020, the new system defaults new voters to nonpartisan unless they select a party affiliation.

Independents are the largest voting bloc in the state, and the bloc’s diversity makes it difficult for the campaigns to predict how they will vote. Nevada’s independents are a mix of young and old voters of different races and ethnicities. They care about issues from housing affordability to wage growth and inflation. Although independent/nonpartisan voters are less likely to vote than those registered as Democrats or Republicans, they play a crucial role in Nevada elections and will be key to a Biden or Trump victory.

In the 2022 midterm election, independents split their votes, helping re-elect Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and elect Republican Joe Lombardo (R) as governor. Exit polling showed that, despite losing the state, Trump won Nevada independents over Clinton in 2016, while Biden won independents and the state’s electoral votes in 2020.

The Reid Machine

Despite polling troubles for Biden in Nevada, Democrats are projecting confidence in the Silver State, largely due to the efforts and legacy of the late former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). It has been 20 years since a Republican presidential nominee carried Nevada; the last to do so was George W. Bush in his successful 2004 campaign. That is largely a result of the Nevada Democratic Party’s get-out-the-vote operation, coined the “Reid Machine.”

Reid established an active party organization primarily driven by Nevada’s largest labor union, the Culinary Union. The Reid Machine produces considerable results, with Democrats winning consistently in Nevada over the last 15 years. However, Democrats’ margins of victory in recent elections are shrinking. Former President Barack Obama won Nevada by 12.5 points in 2008 and nearly 7 points in 2012, while both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 won Nevada by just under 2.5 points.

The majority-Hispanic 60,000-member Culinary Union knocked on over a million doors and helped secure a close victory for Senator Cortez Masto in 2022. In February, Biden visited with Culinary Union members ahead of the presidential primary where he said, “Wall Street did not build America. The middle class built America. Unions built the middle class. There would be no middle class without the unions.” Biden will rely on union members’ door-to-door strength as Election Day nears.

The Debate Stage is Set

Biden and Trump agreed to participate in a debate on June 27 in another battleground state, Georgia. It will be the earliest presidential general election debate in history. CNN will host the debate without an audience, as requested by the Biden campaign. To qualify for the debates, a candidate must earn 15 percent in at least four major national polls and be listed on enough state ballots to win an Electoral College majority. This requirement will likely prevent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from participating.

A second debate is scheduled for September 10 on ABC, before most states begin early voting. The unique timing of the June debate sparked a wave of media speculation about its potential impact on the race and whether a particularly poor showing by either candidate could lead to a challenge at their respective party conventions later in the summer.

Show Me the Money

The Trump campaign said that Trump and the RNC raised $76 million in April, compared to Biden’s $51 million, cutting into the Democrats’ official campaign account advantage. Biden’s April fundraising is a significant decline from the previous month. The Trump campaign said that Trump and the RNC raised $141 million in the month of May. They attributed more than 1/3 of this total to donations made following Trump’s conviction. President Biden’s campaign has yet to announce their May fundraising numbers. The Biden team held a significant cash on hand advantage at the end of April. It is unclear whether Trump’s massive fundraising month will close that gap entirely.

Senate

The fight continues for Democrats to maintain their Senate majority. Efforts are ramping up across the battleground states to defend vulnerable Democratic incumbents concerned about the impact of Biden at the top of the ticket. All the competitive Senate seats this cycle are held by Democrats. With the expectation that Sen. Manchin’s seat will flip red, Democrats cannot afford to lose another seat (or the presidency) and keep their majority.

As Nevada Goes…

With Trump polling ahead of Biden in Nevada and the Senate race rated a Toss-Up, Republicans see Nevada as a crucial Senate pickup opportunity. Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is running for a second term after defeating incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) in 2018. Heller’s 2012 victory was the last time a Nevada Republican won a statewide federal race.

Nevada is trending more competitive. The 2022 Nevada Senate race was the closest in the country, with Sen. Cortez Masto winning by 8,000 votes. And that same year, Republican Joe Lombardo won the governor’s mansion, the only Democratic governor’s seat to flip.

Rosen is focused on appealing to the state’s moderate voters. Her campaign’s early ads emphasize her bipartisan credentials and put distance between herself and Biden. On the Republican side, Trump could play a significant role in the primary race to determine who will take on Rosen. Endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), front-runner, former Army captain, and small business owner Sam Brown (R) is seeking Trump’s endorsement ahead of the quickly approaching Nevada primary on June 11. However, many influential figures in Trump’s orbit publicly support Brown’s primary opponent, Dr. Jeffrey Gunter, a dermatologist who served as Trump’s ambassador to Iceland. With Trump currently polling ahead in the state, many believe his endorsement could be a deciding factor in both the primary and general election in November.

Primary Recaps

Maryland (Likely Democrat): Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks defeated Rep. David Trone (D-MD), current congressman and owner of the largest U.S. wine retailer, in the state’s Democratic primary. Despite Trone spending $62 million on his campaign (the most spent on a Senate primary in history), Alsobrooks secured the nomination with support from Governor Wes Moore (D) and the state’s Democratic congressional delegation. In November, Alsobrooks will face former Governor Larry Hogan (R), who easily won the Republican primary with nearly 64 percent of the vote.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2:1 margin and in 2020 Biden defeated Trump in Maryland by one of his largest margins. In 2023, Hogan left the governor’s office after eight years with an 81 percent approval rating among Democrats, 13 points higher than from his own party. Hogan has an average 6.5-point lead in early polls and he is seeking to become the first Republican to win a Maryland Senate seat since 1980. Hogan will have to defend his record on abortion issues to progressives and his lack of support for Trump to conservatives. This race will have major national implications, as flipping this seat would all but guarantee a Republican majority in the Senate.

Montana (Toss-Up): Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) won their respective primaries on June 4. Both candidates are raising significant campaign dollars as they pivot to the general election. Tester, considered the most vulnerable Senate Democrat this cycle in a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020, has raised over $32M and spent roughly $20.4M so far. Sheehy has raised approximately $8.3M.

Indiana (Solid Republican): Running uncontested, Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) won the Indiana Republican primary and is heavily favored to win the general election against psychologist Valerie McCray (D). In addition to Banks and McCray, Andrew Horning — a retired product manager for Spacelabs Healthcare — will be on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate.

Nebraska (Solid Republican): Both of Nebraska’s Senate seats are up in November. Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) won his primary after being appointed to the seat in 2023 to replace Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE), who left the Senate to serve as president of the University of Florida. Ricketts must defend his seat in November to serve the remaining two years of Sasse’s term. Ricketts will face off against Preston Love (D), an adjunct professor at the University of Nebraska and a civil rights advocate. This is Love’s second attempt at the Nebraska Senate seat after previously running as a write-in candidate in 2020.

Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) received overwhelming support in the Republican primary, winning 80 percent of the vote as she heads to re-election in November. Fischer will be the likely winner in her matchup against Dan Osborn, an Independent and union leader who is not seeking an endorsement from either party.

New Jersey (Likely/Solid Democrat): Running uncontested, Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) won the Democratic primary in his bid to replace Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). Menendez, who is under trial for bribery and corruption charges alongside his wife, opted not to run in the Democratic primary but recently announced he will run for reelection as an Independent. Real estate entrepreneur Curtis Bashaw (R) won the Republican primary despite Trump endorsing his primary opponent Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serano Glassner (R).

New Mexico (Solid Democrat): After both candidates sailed through their primaries without challengers, Nella Domenici (R) will face incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), who is seeking a third term. A familiar name, Domenici, is the daughter of former longtime Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) and is endorsed by the NRSC. To win, she must overcome Heinrich’s nearly 8:1 fundraising advantage in a state where he won re-election by a sizable margin in 2018 and where Biden defeated Trump handily in 2020.

West Virginia (Solid Republican): Current West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) won the Republican primary in May. Justice’s most serious primary competition was Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), but Justice held a strong lead in the polls throughout the campaign. Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D), who was recently endorsed by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), will take on Justice in the general election in a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020.

Race Spotlights

North Dakota (Solid Republican): Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) will likely serve another term in 2024. He is running unopposed in the June 11 primary and is defending this safe seat against Katrina Christiansen (D), an agricultural engineering professor. Christiansen ran and lost to Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) in 2022 winning only 25 percent of the vote.

Utah (Solid Republican): With Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-UT) retirement, a crowded field of Republican hopefuls are running in the June 25 primary to take this safe seat. Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) currently leads the other Republican candidates by a sizable margin in the polls. Still, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R) holds notable endorsements from Trump and the Utah Republican Party. Real estate developer and former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) is backed by Governor Spencer Cox (R-UT). Democrat Caroline Gleich is running unopposed but faces a tall task, as Utah has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost 50 years.

Virginia (Solid Democrat): Popular incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, several notable candidates are in the hunt for the party’s nomination. Navy veteran and former nominee for Virginia’s tenth congressional district, Hung Cao, currently leads the money race with $2 million and is endorsed by the House Freedom Caucus. Marine veteran and attorney Chuck Smith and former Army officer Eddie Garcia are also contending in the crowded primary, which is set for June 18.

Fundraising

Many Senate races are already seeing record fundraising numbers from candidates in both parties. Rep. Collin Allred’s (D-TX) campaign raised over $9.5 million in the first quarter, more than Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) did at the same point in 2018. Yet, Allred’s overall totals lag behind opponent Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) $50 million reelection campaign, the most the incumbent senator has ever raised. Ohio’s showdown between business owner Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is outpacing the rest of the Senate races in terms of attracting spending by outside groups. As of April, $28 million has been spent by outside groups, with most of that coming during Ohio’s Republican primary.

Of all the current Senate candidates from both parties, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is leading in spending, with over $50 million reported so far. This is nearly $10 million more than the top-spending Republican, Sen. Cruz, who did not have to contend with a challenging primary.

House

Primary season is in full swing as Republicans work to maintain their House majority. As of June 5, 27 states and Washington, D.C. have held their congressional primaries. Although many are already turning their attention to the general election, June and August are the busiest months of the primary calendar. Primary season will wrap up in mid-September, less than two months before election day. Despite several high-profile primary challenges, both parties are successfully protecting their incumbents, giving each confidence in their ability to compete for the House majority in November.

Special Elections

CA-07 (Solid Republican): Vince Fong, a state lawmaker and former Kevin McCarthy aide, defeated fellow Republican candidate Mike Boudreaux in a May 21 runoff special election to fill the former Speaker’s vacant seat. Fong — elected with over 60 percent of the vote — will serve out the rest of McCarthy’s term, increasing the Republican majority to 218.

OH-06 (Solid Republican): Republican Michael Rulli will face Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak in a special election to fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH). Rulli is expected to win in this red district, likely increasing the Republican majority in the House to 219–213.

Primary Recaps

Indiana — May 7

IN-03 (Solid Republican): Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN) won a competitive primary to succeed Rep. Jim Banks, who is running for the open Senate seat. Stutzman, who represented the district from 2010 to 2017, narrowly won the eight-candidate primary with just over 24 percent of the vote. He will face Democrat Kiley Adolph in the general election.

IN-05 (Solid Republican): In the Republican primary, incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) held off a strong challenge from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich. Spartz previously announced her intention to retire following this term but later reversed her decision. After narrowly winning with only 39 percent of the vote, Spartz will face Democrat Deborah Pickett in November in the safe Republican seat.

IN-06 (Solid Republican): Businessman Jefferson Shreve won a competitive primary to replace the retiring Rep. Greg Pence (R-IN). Shreve’s ability to self-fund his campaign helped him narrowly defeat state Rep. Mike Speedy and RV dealership consultant Jamison Carrier. He will face Democrat Cynthia Wirth in the general election.

IN-08 (Solid Republican): In the open Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-IN), State Sen. Mark Messmer defeated former Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN), who represented the district for six terms from 1995–2007. Pro-Israel groups, rarely involved in Republican primaries, spent millions against Hostettler due to his past allegedly antisemitic remarks. Messmer will take on Democrat Erik Hurt in November.

Nebraska — May 14

NE-02 (Lean Republican): Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), one of the most moderate members of the Republican Conference, defeated the Nebraska Republican Party’s endorsed candidate Dan Frei. Bacon will need to unify Republican voters ahead of his November rematch against Democratic candidate Tony Vargas. In 2022, Bacon narrowly defeated Vargas by less than six thousand votes.

Maryland — May 14

MD-02 (Solid Democrat): Baltimore County Executive John “Johnny O” Olszewski easily won the Democratic primary and is now the favorite to win the seat following long-time incumbent Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger’s (D-MD) retirement. Olszewski will run against Republican commentator and radio host Kimberly Klacik, who ran unsuccessfully in MD-07 in 2020.

MD-03 (Solid Democrat): State Sen. Sarah Elfreth won the Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD). In the crowded primary race, Elfreth defeated well-funded former U.S. Capitol police officer Harry Dunn and twenty other candidates. Elfreth received more than $4 million in contributions from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Attorney Rob Steinberger won the Republican nomination and will face Elfreth in this heavily favored Democratic district in November.

MD-06 (Likely Democrat): The race to replace Rep. David Trone (D-MD) after his unsuccessful Senate primary run is expected to be the state’s most competitive congressional race this November. April McClain-Delaney, a former Biden-Harris Administration official and wife of former Rep. John Delaney (D-MD), won the Democratic primary. Delaney defeated her closest competitor by more than ten points and will run against Republican Neil Parrott, who previously ran and lost against Trone in 2020 and 2022.

West Virginia — May 14

WV-01 (Solid Republican): Incumbent Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV) successfully defended her seat against a challenge from former state delegate Derrick Evans (who pled guilty to felony civil disorder charges related to his involvement in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol). Miller secured a larger than expected 25-percent margin. While Evans racked up endorsements from the far-right wing of the GOP, including Steve Bannon and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Miller cruised to renomination by mostly ignoring Evans. Miller will face Democrat Chris Reed in the general election in this safe Republican seat.

WV-02 (Solid Republican): With deep political roots in the state, West Virginia Treasurer Riley Moore won the primary to replace Rep. Alex Mooney after his unsuccessful Senate primary bid. Moore’s grandfather was governor and represented the state’s first congressional district and his aunt is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV). He will face Democrat Steven Wendelin in November.

Oregon — May 21

OR-03 (Solid Democrat): The open-seat primary to succeed Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), drew a competitive Democratic field and millions in outside spending. State representative Maxine Dexter defeated progressive candidate Susheela Jayapal by over 20 percent. Outside groups flooded local media markets with attack ads against Jayapal, a Multnomah County commissioner and the sister of Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA). Dexter will face Republican Joanna Harbour in the general election in this safely blue seat.

OR-05 (Toss-Up): State representative Janelle Bynum handily defeated progressive activist Jamie McLeod-Skinner in OR-05’s closely watched Democratic primary. McLeod-Skinner, a progressive activist, knocked out then Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) in the 2022 Democratic primary but went on to narrowly lose in the general election to current Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR). Looking to avoid a repeat of 2022, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and New Democrat Coalition threw their support behind Bynum, who twice defeated Chavez-DeRemer at the state level. The general election between Chavez-DeRemer and Bynum will likely be one of the most competitive races this cycle.

OR-06 (Lean Democrat): Freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-OR) will again face off against Republican nominee Mike Erickson in a rematch of the 2022 race in this competitive district. Erickson easily won the Republican primary to face Salinas again after losing by less than three percent in 2022.

Georgia — May 21

GA-03 (Solid Republican): The race to fill the state’s only open congressional seat is headed to a June 18 Republican primary runoff between former Trump Administration official Brian Jack and state senator Mike Dugan. Armed with endorsements from Trump and former Speaker McCarthy, Jack came up just short of the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff. The winner of the runoff will face Democrat Maura Keller in the general election to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA).

Texas Runoffs — May 28

TX-23 (Solid Republican): Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, narrowly defeated pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera in the runoff for the Republican nomination in Texas’ 23rd district. Following the 2022 mass shooting in Uvalde, TX, part of the 23rd district, Gonzales supported bipartisan gun control legislation, angering the right. Herrera also attacked Gonzales on immigration, which is a top-of-mind issue for this border district. Backed by congressional leadership and AIPAC, Gonzales had a massive financial advantage in the race and won with a mere 400 votes. He will face Democrat Santos Limon in November.

Montana — June 4

MT-02 (Solid Republican): The Republican primary for Montana’s second district, which covers the entire eastern portion of the state, featured a crowded field of eight candidates. State Auditor Troy Downing, who held a strong fundraising lead, cruised to victory and is almost certain to head to Congress in November. Downing defeated former Rep. Denny Rehberg, who represented Montana in Congress from 2001 -2013, State Superintendent of Education Elsie Arntzen, and others. Downing will face Democrat John Driscoll, Montana’s former Public Service Commissioner, in November.

New Jersey — June 4

NJ-08 (Solid Democrat): Freshman Rep. Robert Menendez Jr. (D-NJ), son of embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), defeated Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in a closely watched Democratic primary. Throughout the campaign, Bhalla attempted to tie Menendez to his father’s alleged corruption and claimed Menendez owed his position to his famous family name. Menendez received financial backing from Democratic leadership including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Menendez will face Republican candidate Anthony Valdes in November in this heavily Democratic district.

Upcoming Primaries

Nevada — June 11

NV-03 (Lean Democrat): Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV), is the best pickup opportunity for Republicans of the three seats in Southern Nevada. The Republican primary features three leading candidates: video game score composer Marty O’Donnell, former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, and former state treasurer Dan Schwartz. Schwartz benefits from high name recognition due to his previous statewide position and is self-funding his campaign, while O’Donnell recently received Governor Joe Lombardo’s (R-NV) endorsement for the seat.

South Carolina — June 11

SC-01 (Likely Republican): Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who defeated a Trump-endorsed primary challenge in 2022, now has the support of the former president but faces another serious primary challenge. Mace frequently finds herself in the headlines throughout her two terms in Congress. Once a Trump critic, Mace now supports the former president’s 2024 campaign. Former Speaker McCarthy — who Mace voted to oust from the role in late 2023 — is backing her opponent, former Director of the South Carolina Department of Health Catherine Templeton.

The winner of this Republican primary will be favored to win in November after the Supreme Court upheld the state’s congressional map over the outcry of liberal groups who claimed that the first district was a racial gerrymander that excluded Black voters. On the Democratic side, businessman Michael Moore is running against Mac Deford, a Coast Guard veteran and attorney.

SC-03 (Solid Republican): Eight Republicans and two Democrats are running for the deep red seat currently held by the retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC). The African American pastor Mark Burns has Trump’s endorsement, which could go a long way for him in district that voted for the former president by a margin of nearly 40 percentage points in 2020. Additional competitive Republican candidates include Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) former staffer Kevin Bishop, state Rep. Stewart Jones, and Sheri Biggs, a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard and nurse practitioner.

Kansas — August 6

KS-02 (Solid Republican): Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS) will retire from Congress after just two terms in Congress. Citing dysfunction on Capitol Hill and a desire to spend more time with his family, LaTurner leaves open a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 17 points in 2020. Three Republicans are running to fill the seat. As a “Solid Republican” seat, the primary winner will likely win in November. The early favorite to be Kansas’ newest Member of Congress is Derek Schmidt, the former Kansas Attorney General who narrowly lost his bid for Governor in 2022.

Florida — August 20

FL-08 (Solid Republican): Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL) has served eight terms representing Florida’s Space Coast, but last month decided this term would be his last. Posey’s hand-picked successor, former State Senate President Mike Haridopolos, jumped into the race and is the strong favorite to win the Republican primary. Endorsed by House Republican Leadership, Florida state elected officials, and both Florida Senators, Haridopolos will likely head to Congress come 2025.

Party Committee Updates/Fundraising

The DCCC again outraised the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) in April, raising $12.4 million compared to the NRCC’s $10 million. The DCCC now has $75.9 million on hand, while the NRCC has $59.8 million.

First-quarter fundraising filings show that vulnerable House Democrats are outraising Republican colleagues in similarly competitive districts. Twenty-two Members of Congress currently represent districts that voted for the opposite party’s presidential nominee in 2020. In the first quarter of 2024, five incumbent Democrats who represent those Trump districts outraised the 17 Republicans from Joe Biden-backed districts by a more than two-to-one margin. Additionally, the average Democrat in a race rated as competitive raised 21 percent more in the first quarter.

Democrats are focused on flipping seats in California and New York this November. Democratic challengers outraised incumbents in the first quarter of 2024 in five California races — Reps. Kevin Kiley (R-CA), John Duarte (R-CA), David Valadao (R-CA), Mike Garcia (R-CA), and Ken Calvert (R-CA) — and in four New York races — Reps. Nick LaLota (R-NY), Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Marc Molinaro (R-NY).

Governors

Action on the gubernatorial stage is largely taking place outside of presidential battleground states. By June 11, voters will have decided on nominees nearly guaranteed to win the general election in several solid Republican states: Indiana, West Virginia, and North Dakota. Two of just three incumbents running for re-election this cycle — Greg Gianforte (R-MT) and Spencer Cox (R-UT) — will defend their offices in June primaries.

Primary Recaps

Indiana (Solid Republican): Trump-endorsed Sen. Mike Braun (R) won the May 7 Republican primary to replace term-limited Governor Eric Holcomb (R) with 40 percent of the vote, all but securing him the governor’s mansion this November. The crowded field gave frontrunner Braun an advantage, as he beat his next closest competitor — Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch (R) — by nearly 18 points. Braun won despite an onslaught of spending from his opponents. This primary race was the most expensive in Indiana history, with the six candidates spending over $35 million.

West Virginia (Solid Republican): Frontrunner Attorney General Patrick Morrisey secured a win with 33 percent of the vote in the competitive May 14 Republican primary against candidates from well-known political families in the Mountain state. LGBTQ+ rights were a top issue for the slate of candidates who competed to demonstrate their conservative values leading up to the primary. Morrisey is expected to easily defeat Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D) in the general election.

Race Spotlights

Montana (Solid Republican): Governor Greg Gianforte (R) easily defeated challenger state Rep. Tanner Smith (R) in yesterday’s Republican primary by over 50 points with 86 percent of votes in. The incumbent is all but certain to defeat Democratic nominee Ryan Busse, a former firearms sales executive, in this Solid Republican state. Busse lags far behind Gianforte in polling — with Gianforte up 22 points over Busse — and in fundraising. In Q1 2024, Gianforte raised $1.2 million, nearly triple Busse’s fundraising total over the same period.

Utah (Solid Republican): Incumbent Governor Spencer Cox (R) is on defense against primary challengers from the more conservative branch of the party. At the Utah 2024 Republican Nominating Convention, attendees booed Cox, while challengers State Rep. Phil Lyman and former Utah GOP Chairman Carson Jorgensen criticized Cox for not being conservative enough. As chair of the National Governors Association, Cox is championing the Disagree Better initiative, which aims to address party polarization. Although Cox lost the April party nomination to Lyman, others who have lost the convention — like former Gov. Gary Herbert (R) — have won re-election. A recent poll has Cox far in the lead, with 51 percent of the vote for the June 25 primary.

Vermont (Solid Republican): Incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) announced his bid for reelection to his fifth consecutive term, making it likely that Republicans will hold onto the governorship in this otherwise deeply blue state. Despite Biden carrying Vermont in 2020 by 36 points, Scott is ranked by Morning Consult as the most popular governor in the United States, and he won re-election in 2022 with 71 percent of the vote. Scott will not face an opponent in the August 13 primary. His popularity and name recognition gives him an immense advantage over relatively unknown Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin (D), the Vermont Commission on Women co-chair, who will likely win her party’s nomination.

Washington (Likely Democratic): The gubernatorial primary in the race to replace retiring Governor Jay Inslee (D) will take place on August 6. Early polling shows the race between the two frontrunners — Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R) — to be close, although Ferguson is widening his lead over Reichert to six points according to a recent poll. Ferguson also leads the pack in fundraising, having brought in $7.07 million compared to Reichert’s $3.03 million. Abortion rights are expected to be a key issue in this race, as Ferguson is working to wield Reichert’s record against him in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1980.